(8:15AM - 5/27/21) A storm system moving through the region through Friday, will bring the risk for severe t'storms to Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through late tonight.

Summary...
A storm system that moved through the Plains on Wednesday will move through the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley today, and eventually the Ohio Valley on Friday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through late tonight. Real time observations continue to support the overall previous forecast, with just minor changes needed.

​Forecast...
Model guidance had been showing several potential scenarios for this time period the past several days... However, there had been one solution within model guidance that had been heavily weighed in our previous forecasts. This solution is looking increasingly likely to occur, given continued/increased model support and now real time observational trends support it as well tonight.

As expected, a large complex of severe t'storms developed across the Plains last evening. This complex continued eastward overnight, and will be pushing into Northwest and Western Illinois this morning in a much weaker phase. This complex is then expected to push eastward across much of the state this morning and this afternoon, as it continues to overall fade and weaken with eastward extent. However, with a marginal environment expected to develop with time across Central and Southern Illinois, some regeneration is possible. This could lead to an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, this morning into this afternoon. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

In the wake of this initial complex, additional severe t'storm may develop out west along a cold front, across Kansas and Missouri this afternoon. Uncertainty revolves around this potential, in the wake of early day activity. Should this activity develop, it would then push eastward and eventually across Central and Southern Illinois, this evening through later tonight. A marginal environment will still be in place, which will support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP

(10:00PM - 5/26/21) A storm system will move through the region tonight through Friday, bringing the risk for severe t'storms to Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

Summary...
A storm system will move from the Plains tonight, through the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and eventually the Ohio Valley on Friday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning through late Thursday night. Model guidance continues to show this potential, though agreement on specifics for the event has increased.

​Forecast...
Model guidance had been showing several potential scenarios for this time period the past several days... However, there had been one solution within model guidance that had been heavily weighed in our previous forecasts. This solution is looking increasingly likely to occur, given continued/increased model support and now real time observational trends support it as well tonight.

The first focus is a complex of severe t'storms that is originating across the Plains this afternoon and evening. This complex is expected to move into the western half of the state by Thursday morning, in a much weaker phase. However, with a marginal environment developing ahead of this complex, some of this activity could remain strong/severe as well as the potential for some regeneration of this activity, which could pose an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

In the wake of this initial complex, additional severe t'storm may develop out west across Kansas and Missouri Thursday afternoon. Uncertainty revolves around this potential, in the wake of early day activity. Should this activity develop, it would then push eastward and eventually across Central and Southern Illinois Thursday evening through later Thursday night. A marginal environment will still be in place, which will support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP

(11:30AM - 5/26/21) A storm system will move through the region Wednesday through Friday, bringing the risk for severe t'storms to Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning through Friday morning.

Summary...
A storm system will move from the Plains on Wednesday, through the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and eventually the Ohio Valley on Friday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning through Friday morning. Model guidance continues to show this potential, though a large amount of disagreement continues to exist regarding potential outcomes for the event.

Forecast...
A few potential scenarios continue to be in play for this event, from Thursday morning through later Thursday night... However, the most favored solution within model guidance is also preferred solution, given the model support and past history in similar events.

The first focus will be a complex of severe t'storms that originates across the Plains Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This complex is expected to move into the western half of the state by Thursday morning, in a much weaker phase. However, with a marginal environment developing ahead of this complex, there could be some regeneration of activity, which could pose an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

In the wake of this initial complex, additional severe t'storm are likely to develop out west across Kansas and Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will then push eastward, and eventually across Central and Southern Illinois Thursday evening through later Thursday night. A marginal environment will still be in place, which will support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP

(9:30PM - 5/25/21) A storm system will move through the region Wednesday through Friday, bringing the risk for severe t'storms to Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning through Friday morning.

Summary...
A storm system will move from the Plains on Wednesday, through the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and eventually the Ohio Valley on Friday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning through Friday morning. Model guidance has been showing this potential for several days, though a large amount of disagreement still exists regarding how the overall event will unfold.

​Forecast...
A few potential scenarios are in play for this event, from Thursday morning through Friday morning... However, the most favored solution within model guidance is also preferred solution, given the model support and past history in similar events.

The first focus will be a complex of severe t'storms that originates across the Plains Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This complex is expected to move into the western half of the state by Thursday morning, in a much weaker phase. However, with a marginal environment developing ahead of this complex, there could be some regeneration of activity, which could pose an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

In the wake of this initial complex, additional severe t'storm are likely to develop out west across Kansas and Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will then push eastward, and eventually across Central and Southern Illinois Thursday evening through Friday morning. A marginal environment will still be in place, which will support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP

(10:30AM - 5/8/21) A storm system will move through the region today and Sunday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk, windy conditions, heavy rainfall and snow to portions of the state.

Summary...
A storm system will eject out across the Plains on today, then pushing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This storm system will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk, windy conditions, heavy rainfall and snow to portions of the state. Model guidance continues to be in overall good agreement with all aspects of this storm system, with little to no change needed with this update.

​Forecast...
...Severe T'Storm Risk...

Saturday Night-Sunday Morning:
A complex of rain and t'storms that will be moving across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Missouri Saturday evening, is expected to southeastward across Central and Southern Illinois, overnight Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Ahead of this activity, elevated instability of 500-1,500J/KG and lapse rates of 7-9C will be advecting in. Combined with decent shear and decent forcing, this will allow for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk to be possible across portion of far Western, far Southwest and far Southern Illinois...Overnight Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats.

Sunday Morning-Sunday Evening:
In the wake of early day activity, some clearing and destabilization may occurring ahead of the main storm system and trailing cold front. Additional scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop along this cold front, across portions of Southern Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas. This activity will then push eastward, affecting Southern Illinois, Sunday afternoon and early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 56-63, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, late Sunday morning through early Sunday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible.

...Windy Conditions...
High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of 45-70KT, will be in place. Mixing depths will support wind gusts of 30-45MPH across much of the state, Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Winds will be northeasterly across Northern and Central Illinois, and southerly across Southern Illinois.

If that is not enough, a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois is expected to receive 1-2" of rainfall with this storm system. This is much needed rainfall, given a large portion of the state is seeing drought conditions. In addition to the rain, portions of Northern Illinois may see a rain/snow mix or a period of all snow, later tonight on into early Sunday morning. Some areas could see a dusting of snow.

​Below are the severe t'storm and wind forecasts for this event.

JP

(11:30PM - 5/7/21) A storm system will move through the region Saturday and Sunday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state and windy conditions to much of the state.

Summary...
A storm system will eject out across the Plains on Saturday, then pushing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This storm system will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state and windy conditions to much of the state. Model guidance has been showing this potential, and is in decent agreement regarding the particular aspects.

​Forecast...
...Severe T'Storm Risk...

Saturday Night-Sunday Morning:
A complex of rain and t'storms that will be moving across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Missouri Saturday evening, is expected to southeastward across Central and Southern Illinois, overnight Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Ahead of this activity, elevated instability of 500-1,500J/KG and lapse rates of 7-9C will be advecting in. Combined with decent shear and decent forcing, this will allow for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk to be possible across portion of far Western, far Southwest and far Southern Illinois...Overnight Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats.

Sunday Morning-Sunday Evening:
In the wake of early day activity, some clearing and destabilization may occurring ahead of the main storm system and trailing cold front. Additional scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop along this cold front, across portions of Southern Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas. This activity will then push eastward, affecting Southern Illinois, Sunday afternoon and early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 58-64, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, late Sunday morning through early Sunday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible.

...Windy Conditions...
High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of 45-70KT, will be in place. Mixing depths will support wind gusts of 30-45MPH across much of the state, Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Winds will be northeasterly across Northern and Central Illinois, and southerly across Southern Illinois.

​Below are the severe t'storm and wind forecasts for this event.

JP

(11:00AM - 5/6/21) A fast moving disturbance pushing through the region today will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late this morning through early  this evening.

Summary...
A disturbance will quickly push across the Midwest and Ohio Valley today. This disturbance will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late this morning through early this evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall good agreement regarding this potential with real time observations supporting, thus no significant changes were needed with this update.

Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms have developed this morning across portions of Central and Southwestern Illinois and Missouri. This activity is expected to quickly sweep southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, late this morning through early this evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 49-55, lapse rates of 8.5-9C, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, from late this morning through early this evening. Hail is the main threat, though an isolated occurrence of damaging winds is possible.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP

(8:30PM - 5/5/21) A fast moving disturbance will move through the region on Thursday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late Thursday morning through early  Thursday evening.

Summary...
A disturbance will quickly push across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday. This disturbance will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late Thursday morning through early  Thursday evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall good agreement regarding this potential, with no significant changes needed with this update.

​Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Central and Southern Illinois and Missouri, mid Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. This activity is then expected to quickly sweep southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday afternoon into early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 49-55, lapse rates of 7.5-9C, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Hail is the main threat, though an isolated occurrence of damaging winds is possible.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP

(11:45AM - 5/5/21) A fast moving disturbance will move through the region on Thursday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to portions of Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early  Thursday evening.

Summary...
A disturbance will quickly push across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday. This disturbance will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early  Thursday evening. Model guidance is in overall good agreement regarding this potential.

​Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Central and Southern Illinois and Missouri, mid Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. This activity is then expected to quickly sweep southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday afternoon into early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 49-55, lapse rates of 7.5-9C, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Hail is the main threat, though an isolated occurrence of damaging winds is possible.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP

(9:00PM - 5/3/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to portions of the state tonight through Tuesday evening.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will continue to eject out through the Central US, moving through the region through Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to portions of the state, tonight through Tuesday evening. Model guidance and real time observations support the going forecast.

​Forecast...
Tonight-Tuesday Morning...
A broken line of scattered showers and t'storms currently sits in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. This line will continue to push southeast for the next several hours, posing some severe risk. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms that is ongoing across Oklahoma and Texas will lift northeastward overnight. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, tonight through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned good environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, tonight through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats.

Tuesday Morning-Tuesday Evening...
In the wake of early day activity and as another disturbance moves through the region,  a new round of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. An  environment featuring instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points of 57-63, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned marginal environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Summary...
This Afternoon-This Evening...
A broken line of scattered showers and t'storm spread across much of Central Illinois this afternoon and evening, with several severe t'storms and even a few brief tornadoes having occurred.

JP