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(11:00AM - 5/3/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region today through Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state this afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region today through Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, this afternoon through Tuesday evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall agreement regarding this event. No significant changes were needed with this update.
Forecast...
This Afternoon-Tuesday Morning... Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest and Western Illinois this afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, this afternoon through tonight. An environment featuring instability of 500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned decent environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, this afternoon through tonight. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned good environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, this evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Tuesday Morning-Tuesday Evening... In the wake of early day activity and as another disturbance moves through the region, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. An environment featuring instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points of 57-63, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned marginal environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
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(10:00PM - 5/2/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Monday and Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region Monday and Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall agreement regarding this event. With this update we have upgraded portions of Northwest and West-Central Illinois to a level 2 severe t'storm risk, for widely scattered severe t'storm potential...Elsewhere, no changes were needed.
Forecast...
Monday Afternoon-Tuesday Morning... Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest Illinois Monday afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned good environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Tuesday Morning-Tuesday Evening... In the wake of early day activity and as another disturbance moves through the region, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. An environment featuring instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points of 65-72, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
(10:45AM - 5/2/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region Monday into Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Model guidance continues to be in overall agreement regarding this event. With this update we have upgraded the southern portion of the state to a level 2 severe t'storm risk, for widely scattered severe t'storm potential...Elsewhere, no changes were needed.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest Illinois Monday afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45PM - 5/1/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region Monday into Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Model guidance has been showing this potential for a few days, and has been in decent agreement.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest Illinois Monday afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolates tornado will be the main threats. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolates tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
JP
(11:15AM - 5/1/21) A storm system moving through the region today will bring a period of high winds to the state, from this morning through this evening.
Forecast... A storm system moving through the region today will bring a period of high winds to the state, this morning through this evening. Model guidance has stayed consistent regarding the wind conditions expected, with real time observations supporting the forecast. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of 45-65KT, will be in place. Mixing depths will support southwesterly wind gusts of 30-50MPH across all of Northern and portions of Central Illinois, this morning through this evening. Isolated higher wind gusts of 50MPH+ will be possible across Northeast Illinois. Below is the high wind forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45PM - 4/30/21) A storm system moving through the region on Saturday will bring a period of high winds to the state, from Saturday morning through Saturday evening.
Forecast... A storm system moving through the region on Saturday will bring a period of high winds to the state, Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Model guidance has stayed consistent regarding the wind conditions expected. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of 40-60KT, will be in place. Mixing depths will support wind gusts of 30-45MPH across Northern Illinois, Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Below is the high wind forecast for this event. 
JP
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