(1:30PM - 6/30/21) A heat episode spanning over a couple day period impacted portions of the region and portions of the state, June 17-20th. This period of heat brought multiple days with high temperatures well into the 90's across the state, along with high humidity and high heat indices in the upper 90's to mid 100's.

Summary....
A heat episode impacted portions of the state and region in mid-June. A strong ridge across the Southwestern US was in place leading up to and during this period. An extension of this ridge briefly extended into the Plains for this period of time, pushing hot temperatures into the region. The most consistently hot temperatures and humid conditions occurred across Central and Southern Illinois. High temperatures well into the 90's and heat index values into the upper 90's to mid 100's were common during this period for affected areas.

​Recap Summary...
Thursday, June 17th Recap...
High temperatures topped out in the upper 80's to mid 90's across Central and Southern Illinois, and low temps in the mid 50's to upper 60's across Central and Southern Illinois. Peak heat index values were in the upper 80's to upper 90's across Central and Southern Illinois.

Friday, June 18th Recap...
High temperatures topped out in the mid 90's to low 100's across Central and Southern Illinois, and low temps in the low 70's to low 80's across Central and Southern Illinois. Peak heat index values were in the upper 90's to mid 100's across Central and Southern Illinois.

Saturday, June 19th Recap...
High temperatures topped out in the mid 80's to low 90's across Central and Southern Illinois, and low temps in the mid 60's to mid 70's across Central and Southern Illinois. Peak heat index values were in the upper 80's to mid 90's across Central and Southern Illinois.

Sunday, June 20th Recap...
High temperatures topped out in the mid 80's to low 90's across Central and Southern Illinois, and low temps in the mid 60's to mid 70's across Central and Southern Illinois. Peak heat index values were in the upper 80's to mid 90's across Central and Southern Illinois.

JP

(1:00PM - 6/30/21) A heat episode spanning over a couple day period impacted portions of the region and much of the state, June 10-13th. This period of heat brought multiple days with high temperatures well into the 90's across the state, along with a few days with high heat indices.

Summary....
A heat episode impacted portions of the state and region in mid-June. An area of ridging in place across the Central US aided in making the hot temperatures possible during this period. High temperatures well into the 90's and heat index values will into the 90's and low 100's were common on a daily basis during this period for most areas. Across Northern Illinois where some of the hottest temperatures occurred, feedback from a moderate to severe drought added to the hot conditions.

Recap Summary...
Thursday, June 10th Recap...
High temperatures topped out in the low to mid 90's across Northern and Central Illinois, and low temps in the mid 60's to low 70's across the state. Peak heat index values were in the low to upper 90's across the state.

Friday, June 11th Recap...
High temperatures topped out in the low to upper 90's across the state, and low temps in the low to mid 60's to mid 70's across the state. Peak heat index values were in the mid 90's to low 100's across the state.

Saturday, June 12th Recap...
High temperatures topped out in the low to upper 90's across the state, and low temps in the low to mid 60's to mid 70's across the state. Peak heat index values were in the mid 90's to low 100's across the state.

Sunday, June 13th Recap...
High temperatures topped out in the upper 80's to low 90's across the state, and low temps in the low to low 60's to low 70's across the state. Peak heat index values were in the low to upper 90's across the state.

JP

(11:15AM - 6/28/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through tonight, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through tonight.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through tonight. Little to no change to going forecasts was needed with this update.

​Forecast...
This Morning - Tonight, June 28th...
Areas of scattered showers and t'storms have been ongoing this morning across portions of Northern and Western Illinois. With additional disturbances expected to move through the region, and a frontal boundary wavering across the state, additional areas of scattered showers and t'storms will develop this afternoon. This activity will spread across a large portion of the state this afternoon through tonight. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Recap...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, June 24th...
An initial complex of showers and t'storms spread across a large portion of the state Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Another large complex of showers and t'storms developed later Thursday afternoon and evening across Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois. This large complex then spread across much of the state, Thursday evening through Friday morning. Along the way, some severe t'storms occurred across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds, small hail and isolated tornadoes occurred with this activity.

Friday Morning - Friday Night, June 25th...
An initial large complex of rain and t'storms spread across the state Friday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms developed Friday afternoon and evening across Central Illinois, Missouri and Kansas. This activity then spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, later Friday afternoon through Friday night. Some of this activity was severe across Central Illinois, producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.

Saturday Morning - Saturday Night, June 26th...
An initial large complex of rain and t'storms spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms developed late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon across portions of Northern, Central and Southwestern Illinois. This activity then spread across much of Northeastern, Central and Southern Illinois, Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of this activity was severe across Northeastern, Central and Southern Illinois, producing damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two.

Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, June 27th...
Scattered showers and t'storms developed and pushed across much of Central and Southern Illinois, Sunday morning through Sunday night. An isolated t'storm was severe, producing damaging winds.

JP

(9:30PM - 6/27/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Monday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Monday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Monday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through Monday night. Little to no change to going forecasts was needed with this update.

Forecast...
Tonight, June 27th...
Scattered showers and t'storms continue to push across portions of Central and Southern Illinois this evening, with activity expected to continue through tonight. A severe t'storm threat is not expected for tonight.

Monday Morning - Monday Night, June 28th...
Areas of isolated showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern Illinois Monday morning. In the wake of this early activity, another disturbance will move through the region, and a frontal boundary will be in place across Northern and Central Illinois. A new round of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop Monday afternoon across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, spreading across a large portion of the state Monday afternoon through Monday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Recap...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, June 24th...
An initial complex of showers and t'storms spread across a large portion of the state Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Another large complex of showers and t'storms developed later Thursday afternoon and evening across Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois. This large complex then spread across much of the state, Thursday evening through Friday morning. Along the way, some severe t'storms occurred across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds, small hail and isolated tornadoes occurred with this activity.

Friday Morning - Friday Night, June 25th...
An initial large complex of rain and t'storms spread across the state Friday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms developed Friday afternoon and evening across Central Illinois, Missouri and Kansas. This activity then spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, later Friday afternoon through Friday night. Some of this activity was severe across Central Illinois, producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.

Saturday Morning - Saturday Night, June 26th...
An initial large complex of rain and t'storms spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms developed late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon across portions of Northern, Central and Southwestern Illinois. This activity then spread across much of Northeastern, Central and Southern Illinois, Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of this activity was severe across Northeastern, Central and Southern Illinois, producing damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two.

Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, June 27th...
Scattered showers and t'storms developed and pushed across much of Central and Southern Illinois, Sunday morning through Sunday evening. An isolated t'storm was severe, producing damaging winds.

JP

(11:45AM - 6/27/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Monday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Monday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Monday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through Monday night. Little to no change to going forecasts was needed with this update.

Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight, June 27th...
In the wake of a few isolated showers and t'storms across Central and Southern Illinois this morning, another disturbance will move through the region today, and a frontal boundary will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. A new round of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop this afternoon across Central and Southern Illinois, spreading across a large portion of the state this afternoon through this night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats.

Monday Morning - Monday Night, June 28th...
Areas of isolated showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern Illinois Monday morning. In the wake of this early activity, another disturbance will move through the region, and a frontal boundary will be in place across Northern and Central Illinois. A new round of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop Monday afternoon across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, spreading across a large portion of the state Monday afternoon through Monday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Recap...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, June 24th...
An initial complex of showers and t'storms spread across a large portion of the state Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Another large complex of showers and t'storms developed later Thursday afternoon and evening across Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois. This large complex then spread across much of the state, Thursday evening through Friday morning. Along the way, some severe t'storms occurred across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds, small hail and isolated tornadoes occurred with this activity.

Friday Morning - Friday Night, June 25th...
An initial large complex of rain and t'storms spread across the state Friday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms developed Friday afternoon and evening across Central Illinois, Missouri and Kansas. This activity then spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, later Friday afternoon through Friday night. Some of this activity was severe across Central Illinois, producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.

Saturday Morning - Saturday Night, June 26th...
An initial large complex of rain and t'storms spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms developed late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon across portions of Northern, Central and Southwestern Illinois. This activity then spread across much of Northeastern, Central and Southern Illinois, Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of this activity was severe across Northeastern, Central and Southern Illinois, producing damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two.

JP

​(9:30PM - 6/26/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Monday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Monday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Monday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through Monday night. This period of daily severe t'storm threat now looks to extend into Monday, and perhaps beyond as well. Little to no change to going forecasts was needed with this update.

​Forecast...
Tonight...
A line of scattered showers and t'storms has been moving across Eastern and Southern Illinois this evening. This activity will continue to spread across portions of Eastern and Southern Illinois through tonight. The environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will continue to be in place across Eastern and Southern Illinois tonight. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Eastern and Southern Illinois tonight. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats.

Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, June 27th...
Areas of isolated showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Sunday morning. In the wake of this early activity, another disturbance will move through the region, and a frontal boundary will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. A new round of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop Sunday afternoon across Central and Southern Illinois, spreading across a large portion of the state Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats.

Monday Morning - Monday Night, June 28th...
Areas of isolated showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern Illinois Monday morning. In the wake of this early activity, another disturbance will move through the region, and a frontal boundary will be in place across Northern and Central Illinois. A new round of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop Monday afternoon across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, spreading across a large portion of the state Monday afternoon through Monday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Recap...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, June 24th...
An initial complex of showers and t'storms spread across a large portion of the state Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Another large complex of showers and t'storms developed later Thursday afternoon and evening across Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois. This large complex then spread across much of the state, Thursday evening through Friday morning. Along the way, some severe t'storms occurred across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds, small hail and isolated tornadoes occurred with this activity.

Friday Morning - Friday Night, June 25th...
An initial large complex of rain and t'storms spread across the state Friday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms developed Friday afternoon and evening across Central Illinois, Missouri and Kansas. This activity then spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, later Friday afternoon through Friday night. Some of this activity was severe across Central Illinois, producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.

JP

(10:00AM - 6/26/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region through Sunday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Sunday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Sunday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through Sunday night. There period of daily severe t'storm threat now looks to extend into Sunday, and perhaps beyond as well. With this update, little to no change was needed for today's/tonight's forecast.

Forecast...
This Morning - Tonight...
Areas scattered showers and isolated t'storms have been ongoing this morning across Northern Illinois. Further south, clearing and destabilization is occurring, and another disturbance will be moving through the area. A new round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop by early this afternoon across portions of Central and Southwestern Illinois, spreading across a large portion of the state through tonight. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.

Sunday Morning - Sunday Night...
Areas of isolated showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Sunday morning. In the wake of this activity there will be clearing and destabilization, with another disturbance moving through the area. A new round of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop Sunday afternoon across Central Illinois, spreading across a large portion of the state through Sunday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Recap...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night...
An initial complex of showers and t'storms spread across a large portion of the state Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Another large complex of showers and t'storms developed later Thursday afternoon and evening across Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois. This large complex then spread across much of the state, Thursday evening through Friday morning. Along the way, some severe t'storms occurred across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds, small hail and isolated tornadoes occurred with this activity.

Friday Morning - Friday Night...
An initial large complex of rain and t'storms spread across the state Friday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms developed Friday afternoon and evening across Central Illinois, Missouri and Kansas. This activity then spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, later Friday afternoon through Friday night. Some of this activity was severe across Central Illinois, producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.

JP

(11:30PM - 6/25/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region through Saturday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Saturday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Saturday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through Saturday night. With this update we have upgraded portions of the state to a level 2 severe t'storm risk for Saturday/Saturday night.

Forecast...
Tonight...
An elongated complex of rain and t'storms is ongoing tonight across Northern Indiana, Central Illinois, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma. This activity will continue to push east-northeast overnight, affecting much of Northern and Central Illinois. There continues to be an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across the heart of the state for the remainder of tonight. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.

Saturday Morning - Saturday Night...
Areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this activity there will be clearing and destabilization. A new round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop Saturday afternoon, spreading across a large portion of the state through Saturday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

Recap...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night...
An initial complex of showers and t'storms spread across a large portion of the state Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Another large complex of showers and t'storms developed later Thursday afternoon and evening across Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois. This alrge complex then spread across much of the state, Thursday evening through Friday morning. Along the way, some severe t'storms occurred across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds, small hail and isolated tornadoes occurred with this activity.

JP

(11:30AM - 6/25/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region through Saturday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Saturday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Saturday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through Saturday night. Model guidance continues to show this potential, which a very chaotic evolution expected during this period,, with numerous rounds of t'storms likely across the state. With this update, little to no change was needed for today/tonight's and Saturday/Saturday night's forecasts, as previous forecasts are on track.

Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight...
Once again, another very chaotic scenario is expected to unfold across the state for Friday, with several clusters of showers and t'storms likely to spread across the state, through tonight. An initial large complex of rain and t'storms has been spreading across the state this morning. This activity will generally clear much of the state by early afternoon, allowing for some clearing and destabilization. With lingering outflow boundaries and disturbances moving through the region, areas of new scattered showers and t'storms will develop across the state this afternoon. This activity will spread across much of the state, this afternoon through tonight. Of focus will be activity that develops across Eastern Kansas, Missouri and Central Illinois, which will spread across Central and Southern Illinois this afternoon through tonight. Across this corridor an environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 1-2) across Central and Southern Illinois. Further north, a more marginal environment is expected across Northern Illinois, which will be supportive of an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Northern Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.

Saturday Morning - Saturday Night...
Areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this activity there will be clearing and destabilization. A new round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop Saturday afternoon, spreading across a large portion of the state through Saturday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

Recap...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night...
An initial complex of showers and t'storms spread across a large portion of the state Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Another large complex of showers and t'storms developed later Thursday afternoon and evening across Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois. This alrge complex then spread across much of the state, Thursday evening through Friday morning. Along the way, some severe t'storms occurred across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds, small hail and isolated tornadoes occurred with this activity.

JP

(9:30PM - 6/24/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region through Saturday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Saturday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Saturday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through Saturday night. Model guidance continues to show this potential, which a very chaotic evolution expected during this period,, with numerous rounds of t'storms likely across the state. Tonight's forecast has been adjusted based on current real time data, but no real changes were needed for risk areas compared to previous outlook. Little change was needed for Friday/Friday night's forecast.

Forecast...
Tonight...
A large complex of rain and t'storms is ongoing from Central Illinois back west into Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri. This complex will spread across much of the state tonight. The best severe t'storm potential will reside across Western and Southwestern Illinois, as this area will be closer to a better environment supportive of severe t'storms. Elsewhere across the state, the environment for severe t'storms is on the low/marginal side. The environment across Western and Southwestern Illinois this afternoon through tonight will feature low instability of 500-2,500J/KG, dew points in the low 60's to low 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  good lapse rates of 6.0-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2) across portions of Western and Southwest Illinois, with a n isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across much of the rest of the state. Damaging winds and hail will be the main severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Friday Morning-Friday Night...
Once again, another very chaotic scenario is expected to unfold across the state for Friday, with several clusters of showers and t'storms likely to spread across the state, from Friday morning through Friday night. At this point, the current favored scenario is that a large complex of rain and t'storms that moves across the state Thursday night through Friday morning will dissipate and clear much of the state, allowing for clearing and destabilization to occur. This will allow for a new round of showers and t'storms to develop Friday afternoon across Northern and Central Illinois, as another disturbance moves through the area. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state. This environment will feature moderate instability of 2,500-4,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.5-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 1-2) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.

Saturday Morning-Saturday Night...
Areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this activity there will be clearing and destabilization. A new round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop Saturday afternoon, spreading across a large portion of the state through Saturday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

JP