(12:30PM - 8/29/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, this afternoon into night.

8/29/19 - This Afternoon-Tonight's Forecast...
A storm system and associated cold front is sweeping across the region today. Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of this front this afternoon across portions of Wisconsin, Iowa and Northern Illinois. This activity will then sweep southeastward, across portions of Northern and Central Illinois the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, moderate moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across portions of Northeast and Western Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A few changes this update... Model guidance from last night was in full agreement in showing the potential for widespread showers and t'storms, with at least widely scattered severe t'storm potential. However, model guidance from this morning did a complete reversal, showing a mostly dry frontal passage now...and only an isolated chance for showers/t'storms and an isolated severe t'storm potential. Observations from this morning and early afternoon support the new solution, thus have significantly cut back on severe probabilities for Northern and Central Illinois. Many locations may end up seeing a dry frontal passage, with Western and far Northeast having the best chance for showers, t'storms and an isolated severe t'storm.

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight.

​JP

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(9:30PM - 8/28/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, Thursday afternoon into night.

8/29/19 - Thursday Morning-Night Forecast...
A storm system and associated cold front will be sweeping across the region on Thursday. Scattered showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of this front during the afternoon, across Wisconsin, Iowa and Northern Illinois. This activity will then sweep southeastward across much of Northern and Central Illinois the rest of the afternoon and into Thursday night. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, moderate moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. With this update we have expanded severe t'storm probabilities. An upgrade to higher severe t'storm probabilities is possible in future updates.

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for Thursday morning-night.

​JP

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(11:45AM - 8/28/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, Thursday afternoon into night.

8/29/19 - Thursday Morning-Night Forecast...
A storm system and associated cold front will be sweeping across the region on Thursday. Scattered showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of this front during the afternoon, across Wisconsin, Iowa and Northern Illinois. This activity will then sweep southeastward across much of Northern and Central Illinois the rest of the afternoon and into Thursday night. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, moderate moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for Thursday morning-night.

​JP

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(11:45AM - 8/21/2019) Several disturbances and a front moving through the region will aide in a severe t'storm threat across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, through tonight.

8/21/19 - This Afternoon-Tonight Forecast...
Smaller disturbances and a front will be moving through the region today, with accompanying clusters of rain and t'storms are likely to push across much of the state. Some of this activity has moved into Western Illinois this morning and, will spread across much of the state during the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. An environment will be in place featuring moderate instability, high moisture and low shear. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Central and Southern Illinois, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

8/20/19 - Tuesday Morning-Night Recap...
A large complex of rain and t'storms pushed across much of the state, Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms occurred with this activity, with damaging winds being the main threat that occurred.

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight.

JP

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(9:00PM - 8/20/2019) Several disturbances and a front moving through the region will aide in a severe t'storm threat across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, through Wednesday.

8/20/19 - Tonight's Forecast...
The threat for rain, t'storms and severe t'storms has come to and end across the state. No additional activity is expected tonight.

8/21/19 - Wednesday Morning-night Forecast...
Smaller disturbances and a front will be moving through the region on Wednesday, with accompanying clusters of rain and t'storms are likely to push across much of Central and Southern Illinois from mid-morning Wednesday through Wednesday night. An environment will be in place featuring moderate instability, high moisture and low shear. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Central and Southern Illinois, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. Should more concentrated areas of severe t'storms look possible, higher severe t'storm probabilities may be needed.

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for Wednesday morning-night.

​JP

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(8:00AM - 8/20/2019) Several disturbances and a front moving through the region will aide in a severe t'storm threat across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, for today through Wednesday.

8/20/19 - This Morning-Tonight Forecast...
A complex of rain and t'storms that originated in Iowa overnight, has now pushed into Northwest and Western Illinois this morning. This complex has been borderline severe, with a few isolated severe reports. This complex has been elevated, thus preventing a more significant severe threat. A gradual weakening trend has been noted as well, and this trend is expected to continue as this complex pushes across much of the state the rest of this morning and afternoon. Some re-strengthening of this complex may try to occur across portions of Eastern and Southern Illinois during the afternoon...However, this potential is uncertain at this time, thus will not introduce higher severe t'storm probabilities for this area at this time. An environment will be in place featuring high instability, high moisture and low shear. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of the state, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

Wednesday's potential severe t'storm threat will be discussed in future updates.

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this morning-tonight.

JP

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(9:30PM - 8/19/2019) Several disturbances and a front moving through the region will aide in a severe t'storm threat across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, for Tuesday through Wednesday.

8/20/19 - Tuesday Morning-Night Forecast...
A complex of rain and t'storms will be ongoing across Iowa early Tuesday morning, posing a severe t'storm threat. This complex is expected to push into Northwest and Western Illinois early to mid morning, in a gradual weakening phase. This activity will likely continue to gradually weaken, as it pushes southeastward across much of the state during the rest of the morning and afternoon. Some re-strengthening of this complex may try to occur across portions of Southern Illinois during the afternoon...However, this potential is uncertain at this time, thus will not introduce higher severe t'storm probabilities for this area at this time. An environment will be in place featuring high instability, high moisture and low shear. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of the state, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. 

Wednesday's potential severe t'storm threat will be discussed in future updates.

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for Tuesday morning-night.

​JP

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​(10:30AM - 7/21/19) Multiple disturbances expected to move through the region will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state, through tonight.

7/21/19 - Sunday Morning-Night Forecast...
Development of scattered showers and t'storms are expected across much of Central and Southern Illinois this morning into afternoon. This activity is then expected to move across these areas through tonight. The environment in place will feature high instability, high moisture and low shear. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across Central and Southern Illinois, with damaging winds and hail being the main threats.

7/20/19 - Saturday Morning-Night Recap...
Clusters of showers and t'storms moved across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Saturday afternoon into night. Isolated severe t'storms occurred, with damaging winds and hail being the main occurrences. 

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this morning-tonight.

​JP

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I always say weather is nothing but the planet's largest balancing act. 2019 has largely been a very wet, and frustrating year for Illinois. Many river residents and farmers have had to endure prolonged and in many cases, record flooding. 

However, in a dramatic turn around, things have taken a turn for the drier...the much, much drier. Precipitation rates dramatically dropped across much of the state during July, which happens to be the fastest drying month of the year due to the peak summer sun. 

The drying has been most dramatic across parts of western and central Illinois. Good news, in part for flood ravaged areas, but now things are starting to turn around and become TOO dry. Lawns are beginning to brown, and some lakes are even starting to drop. We lose more water in July and August to evaporation than any other month, and most areas need about 1" of rain per week to keep with the rates. 

Coming off a couple dry weeks, the pattern ahead appears to maintain the dry spell. Right now, the GFS is showing less than an inch of rain across most of the state.

Coming off an already dry couple of weeks, it will do little to help. 

Due to the this, the CPC (climate prediction center) has much of northern Illinois outlooked for potential drought conditions developing during the month of August. As of now, we're not seeing any reason to disagree with this. It's always feast or famine around here it seems. The drought monitor is updated once a week, and we'll be bringing each update as they are released!
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