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(7:30PM - 8/11/21) A period of hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the region and state, through Thursday. Hot temperatures, high humidity and high heat indices are expected across the state and region during this period.
Summary.... A large and elongated ridge in place across the Southern to Western US, which has been helping to extend hot and humid conditions into the state and region for several day period of time, through Thursday. During this time, high temperatures will make it into the 90's for many areas across the state for several days during this period. Additionally, more of note will be the high heat index values, a product of high humidity/high dew points into the upper 70's to low 80's at time...Leading to heat index values into the 105-112 degree range for many areas for several days during this period.
Forecast For Next Two Days...
Thursday, Aug 12th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the upper 80's to mid 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to upper 70's. Heat index values will be in the upper 90's to low 110's. Note: Rain/t'storm could temper the heat/humidity for some areas. 
Recap Summary...
Monday, Aug 9th Recap... Limited portions of the the state were impacted by high heat/humidity to start this multi day period. High temperatures topped out in the upper 80's to low 90's across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois, and low temps in the upper 60's to low 70's. Peak heat index values were in the upper 80's to upper 90's. Tuesday, Aug 10th Recap... High temperatures topped out in the upper 80's to low 90's across the state, and low temps in the upper 60's to upper 70's. Peak heat index values were in the low 100's to upper 110's.
JP
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(11:45AM - 8/11/21) Several disturbances will continue to move through the region through Thursday, bringing daily severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Thursday night.
Summary... Several disturbances will continue to move across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes through Thursday. These disturbances will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Thursday night. With this update we have upgraded portions of Northern Illinois to a level 3 severe t'storm risk for today/tonight, and we have introduced the first severe t'storm forecast for Wednesday.
Forecast...
Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Night, Aug 11th... A complex of rain and t'storms has been moving across Northern and Central Illinois this morning, with some of these t'storms having been severe across Northern Illinois, producing widespread damaging winds. This early day activity will clear Northern and Central Illinois by early afternoon, allowing for clearing and destabilization to occur. With additional disturbances moving through and a frontal boundary moving in, widespread development of showers and t'storms is expected this afternoon across Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri. This activity will likely congeal into multiple clusters or a loose line, and will then spread southeastward across Northern and Central Illinois, later this afternoon through tonight. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,500-5,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 70's, good shear, good forcing, and high lapse rates of 7.0-8.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-3) across Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, Aug 12th... Areas of rain and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of Northern and central Illinois Thursday morning.. In the wake of this activity some clearing and destabilization should occur across the state. With additional disturbances moving through and a frontal boundary moving southward into and across the state, development of scattered showers and t'storms is expected Thursday afternoon across Northern Illinois and Iowa. This activity will likely congeal into multiple clusters or a loose line, and will then spread southeastward across much of the state, Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 2,500-4,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (level 1) across much of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be the severe weather threats. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Recap...
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night, Aug 8th... A large complex of t'storms that originated across Missouri spread northeastward across a large portion of the state, Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Isolated to sporadic t'storms were severe with this complex, producing damaging winds. A few additional clusters of rain and t'storms moved across portions of the state Sunday night into early Monday morning, however none of this activity was severe. Monday Morning - Monday Night, Aug 9th... A large complex of t'storms that originated across Iowa on Sunday night, spread eastward across Northern Illinois Monday morning. No severe weather occurred with this activity. Additionally, a complex of rain and t'storms developed across Central and Southern Illinois Sunday night, which pushed across Central and Southern Illinois through Monday morning. No severe weather occurred with this activity. The main focus was Monday afternoon into early Monday night, as several supercell t'storms developed and moved southeastward across Northern Illinois. Scattered activity was severe, producing several tornadoes, and a few instances of damaging winds and hail. Tuesday Morning - Tuesday Night, Aug 10th... A large complex of severe t'storms developed across Southwest Wisconsin and Eastern Iowa Tuesday afternoon. This complex of severe t'storms then quickly moved eastward across Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois Monday, later Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday night. This complex produced scattered severe t'storms with widespread damaging winds, causing widespread tree damage and power outages across Northern Illinois.
JP
(11:00PM - 8/10/21) Several disturbances will continue to move through the region through Thursday, bringing daily severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Thursday night.
Summary... Several disturbances will continue to move across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes through Thursday. These disturbances will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Thursday night. With this update we have updated tonight's forecast based on current trends, and no significant changes were needed for Wednesday's forecast
Forecast...
Tonight, Aug 10th... In the wake of the large severe t'storm complex that affected Northern Illinois this evening and a few areas of scattered showers and t'storms in Central and Southern Illinois, additional areas of showers and t'storms may develop overnight tonight across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. As the low level jet continues to increase tonight and rides over an outflow boundary left over from the Northern Illinois severe t'storm complex, there may be enough forcing to allow for scattered showers and t'storms to develop. Should this occur, this activity would affect portions of Northern and Central Illinois overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning. However, the confidence in this overall scenario lower than average due to model guidance disagreement. Should activity occur, an isolated severe t'storm threat would exist, with damaging winds and hail being the main severe weather threats. Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Night, Aug 11th... Areas of rain and t'storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Should this activity be ongoing, it will gradually clear the state by midday, allowing for clearing and destabilization to occur across the state. With additional disturbances moving through and a frontal boundary in place, widespread development of showers and t'storms is expected Wednesday afternoon across Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwest Illinois and Missouri. This activity will likely congeal into multiple clusters, and will then spread southeastward across much of the state, Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 4,000-6,000J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 70's, good shear, good forcing, and high lapse rates of 7.0-8.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be the severe weather threats. Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, Aug 12th... Severe t'storm potential will once again exist across portions of the state for Thursday. More information regarding this potential will be provided in future updates. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Recap...
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night, Aug 8th... A large complex of t'storms that originated across Missouri spread northeastward across a large portion of the state, Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Isolated to sporadic t'storms were severe with this complex, producing damaging winds. A few additional clusters of rain and t'storms moved across portions of the state Sunday night into early Monday morning, however none of this activity was severe. Monday Morning - Monday Night, Aug 9th... A large complex of t'storms that originated across Iowa on Sunday night, spread eastward across Northern Illinois Monday morning. No severe weather occurred with this activity. Additionally, a complex of rain and t'storms developed across Central and Southern Illinois Sunday night, which pushed across Central and Southern Illinois through Monday morning. No severe weather occurred with this activity. The main focus was Monday afternoon into early Monday night, as several supercell t'storms developed and moved southeastward across Northern Illinois. Scattered activity was severe, producing several tornadoes, and a few instances of damaging winds and hail.
JP
(10:00PM - 8/10/21) A period of hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the region and state through late this week. Hot temperatures, high humidity and high heat indices are expected across the state and region during this period.
Summary.... A large and elongated ridge in place across the Southern to Western US, which is helping to extend hot and humid conditions into the state and region for several day period of time, through late this week. During this time, high temperatures will make it into the 90's for many areas across the state for several days during this period. Additionally, more of note will be the high heat index values, a product of high humidity/high dew points into the upper 70's to low 80's at time...Leading to heat index values into the 105-112 degree range for many areas for several days during this period.
Forecast For Next Two Days...
Wednesday, Aug 11th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the upper 80's to mid 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the low to upper 70's. Heat index values will be in the low 100's to low 110's. Note: Rain/t'storm could temper the heat/humidity for some areas. Thursday, Aug 12th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the upper 80's to mid 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to upper 70's. Heat index values will be in the mid 90's to mid 100's. Note: Rain/t'storm could temper the heat/humidity for some areas.
Recap Summary...
Monday, Aug 9th Recap... Limited portions of the the state were impacted by high heat/humidity to start this multi day period. High temperatures topped out in the upper 80's to low 90's across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois, and low temps in the upper 60's to low 70's. Peak heat index values were in the upper 80's to upper 90's.
JP
(11:45AM - 8/10/21) Several disturbances will continue to move through the region through Wednesday, bringing daily severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Wednesday night.
Summary... Several disturbances will continue to move across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes through Wednesday. These disturbances will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Wednesday night. With this update no significant changes were needed for today's forecast, and we have introduced the first severe t'storm forecast for Wednesday.
Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight, Aug 10th... A few isolated to scattered showers and t'storms have occurred across portions of Eastern and Southern Illinois this morning. In the wake of this early activity, ample clearing and destabilization will occur across the state through the day. As another disturbance approaches, widespread development of showers and t'storms is expected this afternoon across portions of Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri. This activity will congeal into multiple clusters, and will then spread eastward across much of the state, this afternoon through tonight. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 4,000-6,000J/KG, high dew points in the mid 70's to low 80's, modest shear, modest forcing, and high lapse rates of 6.5-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a sporadic severe t'storm risk (level 2) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat, with hail and an isolated tornado being secondary threats. Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Night, Aug 11th... Area of rain and t'storms will be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of the state. This activity will gradually clear the state by midday, allowing for clearing and destabilization to occur across the state. With additional disturbances moving through and a frontal boundary in place, widespread development of showers and t'storms is expected Wednesday afternoon across Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwest Illinois and Missouri. This activity will likely congeal into multiple clusters, and will then spread eastward across much of the state, Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,500-5,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 70's, good shear, good forcing, and high lapse rates of 6.5-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be the severe weather threats. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Recap...
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night, Aug 8th... A large complex of t'storms that originated across Missouri spread northeastward across a large portion of the state, Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Isolated to sporadic t'storms were severe with this complex, producing damaging winds. A few additional clusters of rain and t'storms moved across portions of the state Sunday night into early Monday morning, however none of this activity was severe. Monday Morning - Monday Night, Aug 9th... A large complex of t'storms that originated across Iowa on Sunday night, spread eastward across Northern Illinois Monday morning. No severe weather occurred with this activity. Additionally, a complex of rain and t'storms developed across Central and Southern Illinois Sunday night, which pushed across Central and Southern Illinois through Monday morning. No severe weather occurred with this activity. The main focus was Monday afternoon into early Monday night, as several supercell t'storms developed and moved southeastward across Northern Illinois. Scattered activity was severe, producing several tornadoes, and a few instances of damaging winds and hail.
JP
(10:00AM - 8/10/21) A period of hot and humid conditions continues to settle in across region and will continue to impact the state through late this week. Hot temperatures, high humidity and high heat indices are expected across the state and region during this period.
Summary.... A large and elongated ridge in place across the Southern to Western US, which is helping to extend hot and humid conditions into the state and region for several day period of time, through late this week. During this time, high temperatures will make it into the 90's for many areas across the state for several days during this period. Additionally, more of note will be the high heat index values, a product of high humidity/high dew points into the upper 70's to low 80's at time...Leading to heat index values into the 105-112 degree range for many areas for several days during this period
Forecast For Next Two Days...
Tuesday, Aug 10th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the low to mid 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the low to upper 70's. Heat index values will be in the low 100's to mid 110's. Note: Rain/t'storm could temper the heat/humidity for some areas. Wednesday, Aug 11th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the upper 80's to mid 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the low to upper 70's. Heat index values will be in the low 100's to mid 110's. Note: Rain/t'storm could temper the heat/humidity for some areas.
Recap Summary...
Monday, Aug 9th Recap... Limited portions of the the state were impacted by high heat/humidity to start this multi day period. High temperatures topped out in the upper 80's to low 90's across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois, and low temps in the upper 60's to low 70's. Peak heat index values were in the upper 80's to upper 90's.
JP
(9:30PM - 8/9/21) Several disturbances moving through the region through Tuesday will continue to bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Tuesday night.
Summary... Several disturbances will continue to move across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes through Tuesday. These disturbances will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Tuesday night. With this update we updated the forecast for the remainder for tonight based on current trends, as well as upgraded the severe t'storm risk across portions of the state.
Forecast...
Tonight, Aug 9th... Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will continue to move southeastward across portions of Northern and Central Illinois tonight. An environment will continue to be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado threat will eb the severe weather threats. Tuesday Morning - Tuesday Night, Aug 10th... A few areas of scattered showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Eastern and Southern Illinois Tuesday morning. In the wake of this early activity, ample clearing and destabilization will occur across the state through the day. Additional widespread development of showers and t'storms is expected Tuesday afternoon across Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri. This activity will likely congeal into multiple clusters, and will then spread eastward across much of the state, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,500-5,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 70's, modest shear, decent forcing, and high lapse rates of 6.5-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be the severe weather threats. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Recap...
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night, Aug 8th... A large complex of t'storms that originated across Missouri spread northeastward across a large portion of the state, Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Isolated to sporadic t'storms were severe with this complex, producing damaging winds. A few additional clusters of rain and t'storms moved across portions of the state Sunday night into early Monday morning, however none of this activity was severe.
JP
(11:00AM - 8/9/21) Several disturbances moving through the region through Tuesday will continue to bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Tuesday night.
Summary... Several disturbances will continue to move across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes through Tuesday. These disturbances will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Tuesday night. With this update we have upgraded the severe t'storm threat across Northeast Illinois for today, and have introduced the first severe t'storm forecast for Tuesday.
Forecast...
Monday Morning - Monday Night, Aug 9th... There will be two areas of focus for today... Northern Illinois: A complex of rain and t'storms has been moving across portions of Northern Illinois this morning, and will exit the area by early afternoon. In the wake of this activity, clearing and fairly quick destabilization will occur. As potent disturbance moves through the area, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Northern Illinois this afternoon. This activity will likely begin in the form of supercells, before eventually congealing with time into a loose cluster as it spreads southeastward across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, this afternoon through tonight. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,000-5,000J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, decent shear, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.5-6.0C. This environment is expected to be maximized this late this afternoon and evening across Northeast Illinois. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-3) across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Southern Illinois: In the wake of a cluster of rain and t'storms moving across the area last night and into this morning, clearing and destabilization is expected to occur. A new round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop this afternoon across portions of Missouri, Southern Illinois, and Southern Indiana. This activity may congeal into a loose cluster or two, as it moves eastward, affecting Southern Illinois from this afternoon through tonight. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 2,500-4,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, modest shear, modest forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1-) across portions Southern Illinois. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though a hail and isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. Tuesday Morning - Tuesday Night, Aug 10th... A few areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of Eastern and Southern Illinois Tuesday morning. In the wake of this activity, a new round of showers and t'storms will develop across Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri during the afternoon.This activity will likely congeal into multiple clusters, and will then spread eastward across much of the state, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,500-5,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 70's, modest shear, decent forcing, and high lapse rates of 6.5-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be the severe weather threats. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Recap...
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night, Aug 8th... A large complex of t'storms that originated across Missouri spread northeastward across a large portion of the state, Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Isolated to sporadic t'storms were severe with this complex, producing damaging winds. A few additional clusters of rain and t'storms moved across portions of the state Sunday night into early Monday morning, however none of this activity was severe.
JP
(9:30PM - 8/8/21) Several disturbances moving through the region through Monday will continue to bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Monday night.
Summary... Several disturbances will continue to move across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes through Monday. These disturbances will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through Monday night.
Forecast...
Tonight, Aug 8th... Ares of rain and t'storms will continue to move across the state tonight. However, an additional severe t'storm threat is not expected. Monday Morning - Monday Night, Aug 9th... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of the state Monday morning. In the wake of this activity and as another disturbance moves through the area, scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Northern Illinois Monday afternoon. This activity will likely congeal into a cluster, and will then spread southeastward across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,000-5,000J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be the severe weather threats. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
JP
(11:30AM - 8/8/21) Several disturbances are expected to move through the region through Monday, bringing a severe t'storm potential to portions of the state this afternoon through Monday night.
Summary... Several disturbances are expected to move across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes through Monday. These disturbances will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this afternoon through Monday night.
Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight, Aug 8th... As a few disturbances move through the area, scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Iowa, Missouri and Northwest/Western Illinois this afternoon. This activity will likely congeal into one or more clusters, and will then spread northeastward across a large portion of the state this afternoon through tonight. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 2,500-4,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and decent lapse rates of 5.5-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across portion much of the state. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat, with hail a secondary threat and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Monday Morning - Monday Night, Aug 9th... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of the state Monday morning. In the wake of this activity and as another disturbance moves through the area, scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Northern Illinois Monday afternoon. This activity will likely congeal into a cluster, and will then spread southeastward across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,000-5,000J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
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