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(12:30PM - 10/31/21) A cool and quiet Halloween is underway across the state today. The good news is that dry conditions are expected, which is good news for those headed out to trick or treat or other festivities this afternoon and evening. Temperatures for later this afternoon and evening are expected to gradually fall, in the wake of a cold front passing.
JP
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(12:30PM - 10/29/21) A brief recap of the storm system that affected the region, Sunday Oct 24th through Monday Oct 25th. This storm system brought severe t'storms, heavy rain/flooding and high winds to the state and region during this time.
Recap Summary... A storm system moved from the Plains Sunday morning, into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest Sunday night, and then into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. This storm system brought severe t'storms, heavy rain/flooding and high winds to the state and region during this time.
Recap...
Severe T'Storms... Scattered showers and t'storms developed along and ahead of a cold front across Southern Iowa and Missouri Sunday afternoon. This activity then swept east-northeastward across Central and Southern Illinois, late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Scattered activity was severe, producing several tornadoes, numerous reports of damaging winds and a few instances of hail. Rainfall/Flooding... Multiple rounds of rainfall occurred across the state, from early Sunday morning through late Monday morning. Some of this rainfall was heavy with training activity at times, associated with t'storms across Northern and Central Illinois. Final rainfall totals were in excess of 1.00" across much of the state during this time period, with a corridor of 2.00-4.00"+ rainfall amounts common across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois. Across this heavy corridor, some localized flooding occurred. High Winds... As the storm system/low pressure moved from along the Iowa/Missouri border Sunday afternoon, across Central Illinois Sunday night and into Indiana Monday morning... High winds occurred on the NE/N/NW side of the storm system, with observed wind gusts of 35-55MPH having occurred across Northern Illinois, Sunday evening through Monday morning. 
JP
(11:45AM - 10/24/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through late tonight.
Summary... A storm system will move from the Plains this morning, into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest by tonight, and into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through late tonight.
Forecast...
Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, Oct 24th... Widespread areas of rain and t'storms have been move much of Northern and Central Illinois, from late last night through this morning. This activity will continue to spread across Northern and Central Illinois through this afternoon. With a warm front expected to be meandering across Central Illinois and an associated marginal severe t'storm environment, an isolated severe t'storm will be possible across Central Illinois through this afternoon. The main focus will come a bit later, as scattered showers and t'storms that develop along and ahead of a cold front across Southern Iowa and Missouri this afternoon will sweep eastward, making it to the Missouri/Illinois border by late this afternoon and early this evening, and then spreading across Central and Southern Illinois late this afternoon through late tonight. Ahead of this activity, the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 500-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good forcing, and lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a level 1/isolated to level 3/scattered severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois. All modes of severe weather will be possible...Including; Damaging winds, hail and tornadoes. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:45PM - 10/23/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, early Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Plains on Sunday morning, into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest by Sunday night, and into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, early Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Forecast...
Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, Oct 24th... Widespread areas of rain and t'storms will spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, from late tonight/early Sunday morning through late Sunday afternoon. With a warm front expected to be meandering across Central Illinois and an associated marginal severe t'storm environment, an isolated severe t'storm will be possible across Central Illinois early Sunday morning through mid Sunday afternoon. The main focus will come a bit later, as scattered showers and t'storms that develop along and ahead of a cold front across Southern Iowa and Missouri Sunday afternoon will sweep eastward, making it to the Missouri/Illinois border by late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening, and then spreading across Central and Southern Illinois late Sunday afternoon through Sunday late night. Ahead of this activity, the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 500-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good forcing, and lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a level 1/isolated to level 2/sporadic severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:15AM - 10/23/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, early Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Plains on Sunday morning, then into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, early Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Forecast...
Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, Oct 24th... Widespread areas of rain and t'storms will spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, from late tonight/early Sunday morning through late Sunday afternoon. With a warm front expected to be meandering across Central Illinois and an associated marginal severe t'storm environment, an isolated severe t'storm will be possible across Central Illinois early Sunday morning through mid Sunday afternoon. The main focus will come a bit later, as scattered showers and t'storms that develop along a cold front across Eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday afternoon will sweep eastward, making it to the Missouri/Illinois border by early Sunday evening, and then spreading across Central and Southern Illinois late Sunday afternoon through Sunday late night. Ahead of this activity, the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 5000-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good forcing, and lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a level 1/isolated to level 2/sporadic severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:00PM - 10/22/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Plains on Sunday morning, then into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Forecast...
Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, Oct 24th... Widespread areas of rain and t'storms will spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, from late Saturday night/early Sunday morning through late Sunday afternoon. With a warm front expected to be meandering across Central Illinois and an associated marginal severe t'storm environment, an isolated severe t'storm will be possible across Central Illinois Sunday morning through Sunday late afternoon. The main focus will come a bit later, as scattered showers and t'storms that develop along a cold front across Eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday afternoon will sweep eastward, making it to the Missouri/Illinois border by early Sunday evening, and then spreading across Central and Southern Illinois Sunday evening through Sunday night. Ahead of this activity, the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 5000-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good forcing, and lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a level 1/isolated to level 2/sporadic severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 10/11/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through early tonight.
Summary... A storm system moved through the Southern Plains on Sunday, and will move through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes today. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through early tonight. With this update we have upgraded portions of the state to a level 2/sporadic severe t'storm risk for today. With this update little to no change was needed to the previous forecast with this update.
Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight, Oct 11th... Areas of rain and t'storms have been moving across Northwestern, Western and Southwestern Illinois this morning. It is expected that some re-generation and re-development of this activity will occur, as this activity spreads northeastward across the state this afternoon. Some of this activity could pose a severe t'storm threat through the day. Another round of showers and t'storms developing along a cold front in Missouri this morning will further develop, and will spread northeastward across the state this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity will also pose a severe t'storm threat during this time. As mentioned above, some severe t'storm potential will exist across the state today, with an environment supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 500-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, high shear, and decent lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Leading into today there had been concerns regarding the amount of clearing/sun that will be seen across the state today for destabilization purposes. It appears those concerns were valid, and will be a limiting factor preventing higher severe t'storm potential for today. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(9:45PM - 10/10/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
Summary... A storm system moving through the Southern Plains today, will move through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night. With this update little to no change was needed to the previous forecast with this update.
Forecast...
Monday Morning - Monday Night, Oct 11th... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to move across portions of the state, Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, there is a question as to how much atmospheric recovery occurs, which will dictate the level of severe t'storm potential with the main round of activity expected. As of now, there is expected to be at least some recovery with clearing and destabilization across the state, in the wake of earlier activity. An arc of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon across Eastern Missouri and Western/Southwestern Illinois. This activity will then spread northeastward across the state, posing a severe t'storm risk. As of now, it appears the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat, though of lower risk level. This environment will feature low instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Should it look more likely better recovery will occur across the state, leading to a better and more supportive environment, higher severe t'storm probabilities could be needed in later updates. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 10/10/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Southern Plains today, and then through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night. With this update little to no change was needed to the previous forecast with this update.
Forecast...
Monday Morning - Monday Night, Oct 11th... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to move across portions of the state, Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, there is a question as to how much atmospheric recovery occurs, which will dictate the level of severe t'storm potential with the main round of activity expected. As of now, there is expected to be at least some recovery with clearing and destabilization across the state, in the wake of earlier activity. An arc of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon across Eastern Missouri and Western/Southwestern Illinois. This activity will then spread northeastward across the state, posing a severe t'storm risk. As of now, it appears the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat, though of lower risk level. This environment will feature low instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Should it look more likely better recovery will occur across the state, leading to a better and more supportive environment, higher severe t'storm probabilities could be needed in later updates. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:00PM - 10/9/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Southern Plains on Sunday, through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
Forecast...
Monday Morning - Monday Night, Oct 11th... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to move across portions of the state, Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, there is a question as to how much atmospheric recovery occurs, which will dictate the level of severe t'storm potential with the main round of activity expected. As of now, there is expected to be at least some recovery with clearing and destabilization across the state, in the wake of earlier activity. An arc of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon across Eastern Missouri and Western/Southwestern Illinois. This activity will then spread northeastward across the state, posing a severe t'storm risk. As of now, it appears the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat, though of lower risk level. This environment will feature low instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Should it look more likely better recovery will occur across the state, leading to a better and more supportive environment, higher severe t'storm probabilities could be needed in later updates. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
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