​(11:30PM - 12/31/20) A storm system will move through the region on Friday, bringing accumulating snow/sleet to Northern and Western Illinois, and accumulating ice to Northern and Central Illinois.

Summary...
A storm system is expected to eject out from the Southern Plains/Gulf Coast tonight, tracking northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Friday, and into the Eastern Great Lakes by Saturday. A large shield of precipitation will spread across the state, tonight through late Friday night. Precipitation will range from snow/sleet and ice across Northern Illinois, to ice and rain across Central Illinois, to rain across Southern Illinois. Model guidance is in overall decent agreement regarding this event. With this update not much change was needed, just minor positioning adjustments.

Forecast...
Northern Illinois:
A mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will spread into Northern Illinois, mid to late Friday morning. A freezing rain, sleet and snow mix is then expected across Northern Illinois from late Friday morning through late Friday afternoon. As colder air filters in, the mix will transition to snow across much of Northern Illinois. Snow will then continue into Friday night, before ending.

Central Illinois:
Tonight precipitation in Southern Illinois will spread northward into Central Illinois. With colder air in place, precipitation will be in the form on freezing rain. Freezing rain is expected across Central Illinois from tonight through late Friday morning. By late Friday morning temperatures will warm enough to change the freezing rain over to rain. Periods of rain will then continue into Friday evening, likely ending as mixed wintry precipitation Friday evening/early Friday night.

Southern Illinois:
A mix of rain and freezing rain has begun to spread into Southern Illinois early tonight. This mix will turn to rain overnight, with periods of rain will then continuing through Friday evening, with an isolated t'storm being possible. Rain will then come to an end early Friday night.

​What's Expected...
Final snow/sleet totals upwards of 1-3" are expected in an arc across Western and Northern Illinois, with a higher corridor of 2-5" totals nosing into the Quad Cities area. Widespread ice accumulation of 0.10-0.25"+ are expected across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, with higher totals of 0.50"+ possible into Western Illinois.

Wind gusts of 20-35MPH are expected on Friday. These winds, combined with the expected ice accumulations, will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages for some areas across Northern and Central Illinois. Additionally, across portions of rural Northern Illinois a large amount of ice still remains on trees from the recent winter storm on Dec 29-30th...Which may exacerbate the potential for tree damage and power outages.

​Below is the snow/sleet and ice forecasts for this event.

JP

2021 will bring us its first challenge, literally on the first day. A winter storm will move through the area with ice being the primary hazard to contend with. Accumulations will easily exceed .25" across a large chunk of central and western Illinois. Below is a summary of the warnings issued by the NWS followed by our official TAM forecast

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL 410 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...Ice and Snow Accumulations Likely Late Tonight through Friday Night... .A winter storm system is expected to bring mixed precipitation including freezing rain and snow to the region late tonight through Friday. This system will track south to north, with freezing rain expected on the leading edge. As temperatures warm Friday morning, rainfall will over take freezing rain. Ice accumulation is expected throughout much of the region, with upwards of 0.3 inches between the Illinois River Valley region and I-55 corridor. Dangerous travel conditions will occur Friday across central Illinois, as well as damage to trees and power lines due to ice accumulation and stronger northeast winds on Friday. Including the cities of Lincoln, Clinton, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, and Springfield 410 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

410 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch, and ice accumulations of three tenths to four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central and west central Illinois. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Friday. *

IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.
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Peoria-Marshall-Fulton-Schuyler- Including the cities of Peoria, Lacon, Canton, and Rushville 410 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches, and ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Peoria, Marshall, Fulton and Schuyler Counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.
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Woodford-Tazewell-McLean-Mason- Including the cities of Eureka, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, and Havana 410 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch, and ice accumulations of three tenths to four tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Woodford, Tazewell, McLean and Mason Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.
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Livingston- Including the cities of Pontiac, Dwight, and Fairbury 318 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing, downed tree limbs, and power outages expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one third of an inch and wind gusts to 30 mph are expected.

* WHERE...Livingston County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the combined weight of ice and gusty winds. Travel will be difficult on untreated roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing rain will change to liquid rain toward the noon hour, and possibly briefly back to snow toward evening.
​***************************************************************************

Ford- Including the cities of Paxton and Gibson City 318 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing, downed tree limbs, and power outages expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one third of an inch and wind gusts to 30 mph are expected.

* WHERE...Ford County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.
***************************************************************************

The period of heaviest freezing rain will be from sunrise through early afternoon, depending on where you are. Temperatures will warm a couple degrees above freezing and change things over to just plain rain, first occurring across southern Illinois and then spreading north. A change over to snow will then occur, mainly north of I-80, before the system moves out. For more detailed information on that please reference this article:

www.illinoisstormchasers.com/forecasts/fri-jan-1st-winter-storm-update-2 

Below is the official Ice forecast TAM by ISC. Stay tuned for updates.
​

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(11:45AM - 12/31/20) A storm system will move through the region on Friday, bringing accumulating snow/sleet to Northern and Western Illinois, and accumulating ice to Northern and Central Illinois.

Summary...
A storm system is expected to eject out from the Southern Plains/Gulf Coast tonight, tracking northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Friday, and into the Eastern Great Lakes by Saturday. A large shield of precipitation will spread across the state, late tonight/early Friday morning through late Friday night. Precipitation will range from snow/sleet and ice across Northern Illinois, to ice and rain across Central Illinois, to rain across Southern Illinois. Model guidance is in overall decent agreement regarding this event. With this update we have increased both snow/sleet and ice amounts within each swath cutting across the state, as confidence in the given outcomes increases.

Forecast...
Northern Illinois:
A mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will spread into Northern Illinois, mid to late Friday morning. A freezing rain, sleet and snow mix is then expected across Northern Illinois from late Friday morning through late Friday afternoon. As colder air filters in, the mix will transition to snow across much of Northern Illinois. Snow will then continue into Friday night, before ending.

Central Illinois:
Tonight precipitation in Southern Illinois will spread northward into Central Illinois. With colder air in place, precipitation will be in the form on freezing rain. Freezing rain is expected across Central Illinois from tonight through late Friday morning. By late Friday morning temperatures will warm enough to change the freezing rain over to rain. Periods of rain will then continue into Friday evening, likely ending as mixed wintry precipitation Friday evening/early Friday night.

Southern Illinois:
A mix of rain and freezing rain will first push into Southern Illinois early tonight, before transitioning to all rain overnight. Periods of rain will then continue through Friday evening, with an isolated t'storm being possible. Rain will then come to an end early Friday night.

What's Expected...
Final snow/sleet totals upwards of 1-3" are expected in an arc across Western and Northern Illinois, with a higher corridor of 2-5" totals nosing into the Quad Cities area. Widespread ice accumulation of 0.10-0.25"+ are expected across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, with higher totals of 0.50"+ possible into Western Illinois.

Wind gusts of 20-35MPH are expected on Friday. These winds, combined with the expected ice accumulations, will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages for some areas across Northern and Central Illinois. Additionally, across portions of rural Northern Illinois a large amount of ice still remains on trees from the recent winter storm on Dec 29-30th...Which may exacerbate the potential for tree damage and power outages.

​Below is the snow/sleet and ice forecasts for this event.

JP

(8:30PM - 12/30/20) New Years Eve and New Years Day have arrived...While significant weather will hold off for much of New Years Eve, New Years Day will be a different story as a winter storm will impact the state.

New Year Eve Forecast...
High temperatures on New Years Eve will be in the mid 20's to low 30's across Northern Illinois, the low 30's across Central Illinois and the low to mid 30's across Southern Illinois. Low temperatures on New Years Eve be the upper single digits to low 20's across Northern Illinois, the upper 10's to mid 20's across Central Illinois, the upper 20's across Southern Illinois. Rain will push into Southern Illinois as we ring in the new year, changing to freezing rain as it pushes northward into Central Illinois later in the night. Some ice accumulation is expected.

New Year Day Forecast...
High temperatures on New Years Day will be in the low 30's across Northern Illinois, the low to mid 30's across Central Illinois and the mid 30's to low 50's across Southern Illinois. Low temperatures New Years Day will be in the low 10's to low 20's across Northern Illinois, to the mid to upper 20's across Central Illinois, to the upper 20's to low 30's across Southern Illinois. A period of freezing rain will be likely across Central Illinois on New Years Day morning, before transitioning to rain for the afternoon, and then ending during the evening. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected New Years Day morning into night across Northern Illinois. Snow, sleet and freezing rain accumulation is expected across Northern Illinois, with ice accumulation expected across Central Illinois.

JP

(10:30PM - 12/30/20) A storm system will move through the region on Friday, bringing the chance for accumulating snow to Northern and Western Illinois, and accumulating ice to Northern and Central Illinois.

​Summary...
A storm system is expected to eject out from the Southern Plains/Gulf Coast on Thursday night, tracking northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Friday, and into the Eastern Great Lakes by Saturday. A large shield of precipitation will spread across the state, late Thursday night/early Friday morning through late Friday night. Precipitation will range from snow and ice across Northern Illinois, to ice and rain across Central Illinois, to rain across Southern Illinois. After being split into two camps, model guidance has generally come to decent agreement on what the a more southerly solution for this event. No significant changes were needed with this update.

​Forecast...
Northern Illinois:
Freezing rain will spread into Northern Illinois, late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. Freezing rain is expected across Northern Illinois from late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon through Friday evening. As colder air filters in, freezing rain will transition to snow across much of Northern Illinois. Snow will then continue into Friday night, before ending.

Central Illinois:
Late Thursday night/early Friday morning precipitation in Southern Illinois will spread northward into Central Illinois. With colder air in place, precipitation will be in the form on freezing rain. Freezing rain is expected across Central Illinois from late Thursday night/early Friday morning through late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. By late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon temperatures will warm enough to change the freezing rain over to rain. Periods of rain will then continue into early Friday night, potentially ending as mixed wintry precipitation.

Southern Illinois:
Rain will first push into Southern Illinois early Thursday night. Periods of rain will then continue through Friday evening, with an isolated t'storm being possible. Rain will then come to an end early Friday night.

Final snowfall totals upwards of 1-3" are expected in an arc across Western and Northern Illinois. Widespread ice accumulation of 0.10-0.25"+ is expected across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois. Wind gusts of 20-35MPH, combined with the expected ice accumulations, may lead to some tree damage and power outages for some areas.

​Below is the snowfall and ice forecasts for this event.

JP

​(11:45AM - 12/30/20) A storm system will move through the region on Friday, bringing the chance for accumulating snow to Northern and Western Illinois, and accumulating ice to Northern and Central Illinois.

​Summary...
A storm system is expected to eject out from the Southern Plains/Gulf Coast on Thursday night, tracking northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Friday, and into the Eastern Great Lakes by Saturday. A large shield of precipitation will spread across the state, late Thursday night/early Friday morning through late Friday night. Precipitation will range from snow and ice across Northern Illinois, to ice and rain across Central Illinois, to rain across Southern Illinois. Model guidance has been generally split in two camps regarding this event, with a consistent more southerly group and a northern group, which has been trending south. Given observations, trends and the consistency of the southern group of model guidance, have opted to generally base our forecast on a more southerly solution. This more southerly solution will lead to a more widespread wintry threat across the state.

​Forecast...
Northern Illinois:
Freezing rain will spread into Northern Illinois, late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. Freezing rain is expected across Northern Illinois from late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon through Friday evening. As colder air filters in, freezing rain will transition to snow across much of Northern Illinois. Snow will then continue into Friday night, before ending.

Central Illinois:
Late Thursday night/early Friday morning precipitation in Southern Illinois will spread northward into Central Illinois. With colder air in place, precipitation will be in the form on freezing rain. Freezing rain is expected across Central Illinois from late Thursday night/early Friday morning through late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. By late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon temperatures will warm enough to change the freezing rain over to rain. Periods of rain will then continue into early Friday night, potentially ending as mixed wintry precipitation.

Southern Illinois:
Rain will first push into Southern Illinois early Thursday night. Periods of rain will then continue through Friday evening, with an isolated t'storm being possible. Rain will then come to an end early Friday night.

Final snowfall totals upwards of 1-3" are expected in an arc across Western and Northern Illinois. Widespread ice accumulation of 0.10-0.25"+ is expected across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois. Wind gusts of 20-35MPH, combined with the expected ice accumulations, may lead to some tree damage and power outages for some areas.

​Below is the snowfall and ice forecasts for this event.

JP

(6:00PM - 12/29/20) A brief short term update regarding the winter storm that continues to affect the state this evening...

Summary...
A large area of moderate to heavy snow is ongoing across a large portion of Northern Illinois. There was recently even an occurrence of thundersnow in Lee Co. Thundersnow has also been widespread in Eastern Iowa, with snowfall rates of 1-2"+ an hour being common. Snowfall accumulations in Northern Illinois have ranged anywhere from 1-6" thus far.

As warm air advection has been increasing, snow has been changing to sleet/freezing rain across portions of Western and Northern Illinois, south of I-80. With time, much of North-Central and Northeast Illinois will transition from snow to sleet/freezing rain, with only Northwest Illinois and areas near the IL/WI border likely to remain as all snow. Additional snow/sleet accumulation expected across much of Northern Illinois, highest amounts north and lowest south. Additionally, ice accumulation will be likely as precipitation changes over to a mix.

JP

(12:00PM - 12/29/20) A storm system moving through the region today into Wednesday will bring accumulating snow to much of Northern Illinois, and a wintry mix to portions of Northern and Central Illinois...This afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Summary...
A weak and loosely organized storm system is ejecting out from the Plains today, and will track northeastward into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. With cold air initially in place, snow will generally be favored across far Northern Illinois, with more of a wintry mix likely across other portions of Northern Illinois and also portions of Central Illinois for a time. Model guidance continues to be in decent agreement overall regarding the scenario expected to unfold, with the biggest question being timing of the transition from snow to a wintry mix across Northern Illinois...which will determine final snow/sleet and ice accumulations. Observational trends will continue to be monitored through the event, and updates will be provided as needed.

​Forecast...
A large area of precipitation will spread across the state, this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation, in the form of snow, has already pushed into Northwest and Western Illinois early this afternoon. Precipitation will quickly spread further across the remainder of Northern and Central Illinois the remainder of this afternoon, with much of it falling as snow across Northern Illinois and a wintry mix across Central Illinois. As warm air advection increase this evening, snow will turn to a wintry mix (snow/sleet/freezing rain) across Northern Illinois, with the wintry mix turining to all rain across Central Illinois. By Wednesday morning as warm air advection continues, a wintry mix (snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain) will continue across Northern Illinois, with precipitation ending by afternoon. It continues to look possible that only far Northern Illinois along the Illinois/Wisconsin border may remain as all snow for the duration of this event.

A swath of snowfall totals up to 6-9" is expected in Northwest Illinois, with amounts gradually tapering with southward extent across Northern Illinois. An axis of ice accumulation of 0.10-0.25" is also expected across portions of Western and Northern Illinois. Additionally, some sleet accumulation is likely across Northern Illinois as well.

​Below are the snowfall and ice forecasts for this event.

JP

(10:30PM - 12/28/20) A storm system will move through the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing accumulating snow to much of Northern Illinois and a wintry mix to portions of Northern and Central Illinois...Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Summary...
A weak and loosely organized storm system is expected to eject out from the Plains on Tuesday, tracking northeastward, and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. With cold air initially in place, snow will generally be favored across Northern Illinois, with more of a wintry mix likely across other portions of Northern Illinois and also portions of Central Illinois for a time, as warm air advection occurs. Model guidance overall generally remains within a concentrated envelope of outcomes, with only minor adjustments occurring now. Little change was needed with this update, just generally minor noise level adjustments.

​Forecast...
A large area of precipitation is expected to spread across the state, from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will first push into Northwest and Western Illinois, early to mid Tuesday afternoon, in the form of snow across Northwest Illinois and a wintry mix (snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain) across Western Illinois. Precipitation will quickly spread further across the remainder of Northern and Central Illinois Tuesday evening, with much of it falling as snow across a good portion of Northern Illinois and a wintry mix quickly changing rain across Central Illinois. As warm air advection increase Tuesday night, snow will turn to a wintry mix (snow/sleet/freezing rain) across Northern Illinois, with all rain across Central Illinois. By Wednesday morning as warm air advection continues, a wintry mix (snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain) will continue across Northern Illinois, with precipitation ending by afternoon. It continues to look possible that only far Northern Illinois along the Illinois/Wisconsin border may remain as all snow for the duration of this event.

Final snowfall totals will generally range from 2-5" in the swath of snowfall, with a higher corridor of 4-7" totals likely. Snowfall totals will rapidly lower along the southern end of the axis. Ice accumulation of a glaze to 0.10"+ will be likely across portions of Western and Northern Illinois. Additionally, some sleet accumulation is likely across Northern Illinois as well.

​Below is the snowfall and ice forecasts for this event.

JP

​(11:45AM - 12/28/20) A storm system will move through the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing accumulating snow to much of Northern Illinois and a wintry mix to portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

Summary...
A weak and loosely organized storm system is expected to eject out from the Plains on Tuesday, tracking northeastward, and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. With cold air initially in place, snow will generally be favored across far northern portions of Northern Illinois, with more of a wintry mix likely across other portions of Northern Illinois and also portions of Central Illinois for a time, as warm air advection occurs. There has been a select few within model guidance that have been consistent with many aspects of this event, showing a further south event across the region. Meanwhile, other model guidance has been further north with placement, but has been trending southward with time. The main change with this update was to slightly adjust the snowfall axis based on trends, as well as increase expected snowfall amounts in the heart of the snowfall axis.

​Forecast...
A large area of precipitation is expected to spread across the state, from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will first push into Northwest and Western Illinois Tuesday afternoon and evening, in the form of snow across Northwest Illinois and a wintry mix (snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain) across Western Illinois. As precipitation spreads further across Northern and Central Illinois Tuesday night, much of it will fall as snow across a good portion of Northern Illinois and a wintry mix quickly changing rain across Central Illinois. By Wednesday morning as warm air advection continues, Central Illinois will have all rain, and snow across portions of Northern Illinois will have turned to a wintry mix (snow/sleet/freezing rain). Only far Northern Illinois along the Illinois/Wisconsin border may remain as all snow. By later Wednesday morning and afternoon, precipitation across Northern and Central Illinois will end from west to east.

Final snowfall totals will generally range from 2-5" in the swath of snowfall, with a higher corridor of 4-7" totals likely. Snowfall totals will rapidly lower along the southern end of the axis. Ice accumulation of a glaze to 0.10"+ will be likely across portions of Western and Northern Illinois. Additionally, some sleet accumulation is possible across Northern Illinois as well.

​Below is the snowfall forecast for this event.

JP