Coldest Temps Since March Next Week...Maybe Some Snow Too?

GEFS 850MB Temps Next Week

(7:30PM - 10/23/19) The coldest temperatures since March are on the way for the state next week (Halloween week)...and could it be potentially accompanied by the first flakes of the season for some?

A push of cold air is likely to settle into the region next week, and will feature the coldest temperatures since March for most areas. High temperatures may be limited to the 30's for portions of the state for at least one day during the period, with widespread low temperatures in the 20's for many areas at least a few of the days...possibly even 10's if perfect conditions work out.

The cold air push will be a product of a building Alaskan ridge, and supportive teleconnections such as a -AO/-NAO/-EPO combo. This scenario often leads to colder temperatures for our region. This pattern will pull a lobe of colder air from Canada southward into the region, featuring 850mb temps or around -10 as it passes our area. At the surface this translates to the aforementioned cold temperature readings expected.

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​At this range, there is some variability on the duration of the cold push. Some model guidance suggests it will be limited to 2-3 days, while other guidance supports closer to 5 days or so. While this will not be noteworthy cold a few months from now, it is worth discussing now as it will be the first real push of cold air of the new season and will bring a hard freeze to much of the state...effectively ending the growing season finally. It will also make for a cold Halloween for anyone trick-or-treating!

Lastly...As hinted at in the title and opening line, there is a chance some areas could see their first flakes of the season during this period as well. It's not worth saying anything more than that at this time, but we will have further information as we get closer and should the potential continue to look possible.

​JP

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