Feb 12th-13th Potential MId-Week System To Bring Swath Of Accumulating to Illinois

Over the last few days, numerical model guidance have been coming into a little better agreement on a storm system moving into portions of the Midwest during the middle part of next week, potentially bringing a swath of accumulating snow with it to portions of Illinois. Nothing is set in stone yet and there are several moving parts that will determine whether a sizable system can affect us here in Illinois but the potential is certainly there. Let's dig into the setup and some early thoughts....

Looking at the overall setup, by Tuesday afternoon a southern stream cut-off upper level low will be located over the Four Corners Region and New Mexico as forecast right now. Another disturbance to watch is the northern stream system diving southeast out of the Pacific Northwest. These systems look to potentially phase or in the least the northern system will "kick" out the main upper level low and aid in developing a surface low that will move northeast into southern Midwest and Ohio River Valley, as you'll see below. But, the speed and locations of these two systems will really determine the outcome of this. 

Looking at an ensemble forecast valid at 6pm on Wednesday, you can see there is decent agreement on a surface low/storm system located to our south and southeast Wednesday evening but at this stage as to be expected, the exact track isn't set in stone yet and most likely wont be for another few days. 

Below is just one models animation/outcome and is by no means locked into being a solution. One possible scenario is an area of low pressure running up the Ohio River with an area of accumulating snow on the north and northwest side across portions of Illinois. Again, a further southeast/weaker track would mean a lesser chance for snow while a stronger more northwest track would open the stage for this being a potentially impressive system for someone across the state. 

Below is our initial thoughts on potential area of accumulating snow. Stay tuned for continued updates as we get into the beginning of this coming week. 

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