This is beginning to give us a headache as model guidance continues to struggle with and waffle around with different solutions nearly every model cycle regarding how a good portion of next week plays out. Still at this time, there remains many possible scenarios on the table with a couple of those ones that produce shovelable snow across portions of Illinois next week. Again, we are able to highlight some periods right now to watch while others look to have lesser chances for noteworthy wintry weather. Let's dig into the latest below.
The animation below continues to show our main trough and upper level system coming ashore California tomorrow during the afternoon and evening, then slowly progressing into the Four Corners region by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Now that we've gotten a little closer, agreement is slowly improving, especially with it getting into that area by later Tuesday but beyond that remains in question. There are several "moving parts" or smaller waves/weather systems that will be around and these could impact how things play out across the Midwest and here in Illinois.
Using an ensemble forecast approach to show you the remaining uncertainty next week, below is 20 different possible solutions/outcomes valid late Tuesday night at midnight across the Midwest. With Monday night looking like really not much at all at this point, this period looks to be the first potential time frame of noteworthy wintry weather. As you can see, not all our really alike at all. Some of them feature snow and across many areas of the state depending on the ensemble member. Some have little to no snow and some have some freezing rain/sleet while others don't. So you can see why we continue to struggle with figuring this one out.
At this time, the most significant wave or system with the most potential looks to be on Thursday as model guidance continues to try to develop a strong surface low and run it northeast into portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. But again, you can see below there remains a lot of disagreement and possible scenarios. The images below are valid at 6am on Thursday. Some members show a stronger system further northwest with a swath of good snows across Illinois while others are weaker and further southeast with little snow across the state.
Stay tuned for continued updates as anyone within the circled area could see accumulating/shovelable snow next week, potentially from more than one system as it moves through the area.
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