Fri-Mon, June 21-24th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #3

(11:45AM - 6/21/19) A series of disturbances pushing through the region, along with a meandering frontal boundary, will bring the threat for repeated rounds of severe t'storms to the state today through Monday.

This afternoon-tonight...
Several clusters of rain and t'storms are expected to move across much of the state through tonight. While much of the state will be impacted by this activity to some degree, of focus will be Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a warm front sitting across these areas. One of these clusters of rain and t'storms is currently pushing across Western and Southwest Illinois, and is expected to sweep across much of Central and Southern Illinois into the afternoon. Another cluster closely follows the first, and will affect the same areas this afternoon and evening. An additional cluster or two will likely push across Central and Southern Illinois once again tonight. Near and south of the warm front, an environment in place featuring high instability, high moisture and good shear is expected. This will promote a scattered severe t'storm threat across much of Central and Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. We have upgraded severe t'storms probabilities across much of Central and Southern Illinois with this update.

​Saturday morning-Saturday night...
Several clusters of rain and t'storms are expected to move across much of the state Saturday morning through Saturday night. A cluster or two of raina nd t'storms will likely be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Saturday morning, with this activity likely to exit the state to the east by afternoon. Additional areas of rain and t'storms will push into the state from Iowa and Missouri, Saturday evening and night. Near and south of the warm front expected to be sitting across the heart of the state, an environment in place featuring high instability, high moisture and good shear is expected. This will promote an isolated to widely scattered to scattered severe t'storm threat across much of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats. It is possible an upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities will be needed in future updates.

A severe t’storm threat will likely continue into Sunday-Monday as well for portions of the state. This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches.

Below is our TAM severe t'storm forecast for Friday/night and Saturday/night.

​JP

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