Fri-Mon, June 21-24th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #4

(9:30PM - 6/21/19) A series of disturbances pushing through the region, along with a meandering frontal boundary, will bring the threat for repeated rounds of severe t'storms to the state through Monday.

Tonight...
In the wake of two clusters of rain and severe t'storms that pushed across Central and Southern Illinois today, a new round of rain and t'storms has developed across Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and Western Illinois. This activity will likely grow upscale into one or two clusters, which will push across Central and Southern Illinois tonight. An isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat may exist with this activity. Wind and hail will be the main threats.

​​Saturday morning-Saturday night...
Several clusters of rain and t'storms are expected to move across much of the state Saturday morning through Saturday night. A cluster or two of rain and t'storms will likely be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Saturday morning, with this activity likely to exit the state to the east by afternoon. Additional areas of rain and t'storms will push into the state from Iowa and Missouri, Saturday evening and night. Near and south of the warm front expected to be sitting across the heart of the state, an environment in place featuring high instability, high moisture and good shear is expected. This will promote an isolated to widely scattered to scattered severe t'storm threat across much of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats. It is possible an upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities will be needed in future updates.

​Sunday morning-Sunday night...
Several clusters of rain and t'storms are expected to move across much of the state Saturday morning through Saturday night. An environment in place featuring moderate to high instability, high moisture and good shear is expected. This will promote an isolated to widely scattered to scattered severe t'storm threat across much of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats. It is possible an upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities will be needed in future updates.

A severe t’storm threat will likely continue into Monday as well for portions of the state. This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches.

Below is our TAM severe t'storm forecast for Saturday/night and Sunday/night.

​JP

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