Fri-Sat, Jan 3-4th Snow Event Update #4

(11:45PM - 1/3/20) A disturbance moving through the region is currently bring snow to portions of the state, and will continue to into Saturday.

As was discussed during our previous update this evening, observational trends today have shown the disturbance associated with this event has ended up a bit further north and stronger than most model guidance suggested. This has already lead to higher snowfall totals than projected across portions of Iowa...Where 1-3" was forecast, and 6-10" occurred. Also as mentioned in the previous update, we were weary of the fact model guidance was already struggling and wanted to weaken this disturbance and associated snow too quickly. That worry indeed looks to have been correct, as while the disturbance and snow has toned down a bit with time, it is holding on stronger and longer than model guidance had previously shown. Thus, we have bumped up expected snowfall totals into the 1-3" range from the Quad Cities area on into portions of North-Central Illinois. An isolated higher amount will be possible within that corridor.

An area of snow is currently moving across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, and will continue to do so through Saturday morning. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible at times. The southern edge of the precipitation shield may actually be a mix, across portions of Central Illinois. Some mixed precipitation may linger across Eastern Illinois into Saturday afternoon as well, as the disturbance departs the area. A dusting to 1" of snow will be likely for most areas, with a corridor of 1-3" nosing into Northwest and North-Central Illinois...isolated higher amounts will be possible in that corridor. It should be noted than even though a widespread area is expected to see snow, amounts will not be uniform, given the scattered nature of the expected snow.

In addition to the snow, winds are expected to increase tonight through Saturday morning. Wind gusts of 25-45mph will be likely across Northern and Central Illinois during that time. Some blowing snow may be possible for some areas as well.

​Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event.

​JP

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