Fri-Sat, July 9-10th Severe T'Storm Episode Update #3

(9:30PM - 7/9/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Saturday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, tonight through Saturday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will continue to eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Saturday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, tonight through Saturday night. With this update no significant changes were needed with going forecasts.

​Forecast...
Tonight, July 9th...
A loose cluster of severe t'storms has been moving southeastward across portions of Iowa, Missouri and Western Illinois the past several hours. This complex will continue to affect portions of Central and Southern Illinois overnight tonight. Additional clusters of rain and t'storms across the Plains will eventually move towards and into late tonight and early Saturday morning. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will continue to be in place across portions of Central and Southern Illinois tonight, with an isolated to scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-3) continuing across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night, July 10th...
​Areas of rain and t'storms will be ongoing across Central and Southern Illinois Saturday morning, as well as adjacent portions of Missouri and Indiana. Some regeneration of this activity is possible, in addition to the potential for new development of scattered showers and t'storms Saturday afternoon, with all activity pushing east-southeastward across Central and Southern Illinois through the day on Saturday and Saturday night. The overall environment supportive of some degree of severe t'storm threat will be in place across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 500-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low 60's to low 70's, good shear, good forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 1-2) across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

​Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

JP