Fri-Sat, July 9-10th Severe T'Storm Episode Update #4

(11:45AM - 7/10/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through tonight, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, though tonight.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will continue to eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through tonight. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through tonight. With this update no significant changes were needed with going forecasts.

​Forecast...
Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night, July 10th...
​Areas of showers and isolated t'storms have been occurring this morning across portions of Northwest, Central and Southern Illinois. Some regeneration of this activity is possible, in addition to the potential for new development of scattered showers and t'storms this afternoon across portions of Kansas, Missouri and Central/Southern Illinois. All of this activity will push east-southeastward, affecting portions of Central and all of Southern Illinois, through tonight. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across portions of Central and all of Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 1-2) across portions of Central and all of Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

​Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Recap...
​Friday Morning - Friday Night , July 9th...
A cluster of scattered severe t'storms developed across Iowa Friday afternoon. This complex then moved southeastward, across portions of Iowa, Missouri and Western Illinois Friday evening. This complex continued southeastward across Southern Illinois Friday night. Scattered severe t'storms occurred associated with this complex Friday evening through Friday night, across Western and Southwestern Illinois, producing damaging winds hail large hail.

JP