Fri-Sat, July 9-10th Severe T'Storm Risk

​(11:45AM - 7/8/21) Multiple disturbances are expected to move through the region Friday and Saturday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state Friday and Saturday.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through on Friday and Saturday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Friday and Saturday. There has been growing support within model guidance for a severe t'storm risk to extend into portions of the state during this period.

Forecast...
Friday Afternoon - Friday Night, July 9th...
Scattered showers and t'storms will develop Friday afternoon across Iowa and Missouri, in the vicinity of a warm front. This activity, which may grow upscale into a few clusters, will then push southeastward, affecting portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois later Friday afternoon through Friday night. While the best severe t'storm environment will be out west across Iowa and Missouri, the overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across Western and Southwestern Illinois as well. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 6.0-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 1-2) across Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night, July 10th...
​Severe t'storm potential will once again exist across portions of the state for Saturday. More information regarding this potential will be provided in the next update.

​Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

JP