Fri-Sat, June 26-27th Severe T'Storm Event Update #3

(12:00PM - 6/26/20) Multiple disturbances are expected to move through the region today and Saturday, bringing a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state each day. 

This afternoon - tonight...
Clusters of showers and t'storms have been spreading across Northern and portions of Central Illinois this morning. In the wake of this early activity, some clearing and destabilization is expected to occur this afternoon. New development of scattered showers and t'storms will occur this afternoon, across portions of Southern Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwest Illinois. This activity is likely to grow upscale into multiple lines/clusters, pushing southeastward across Northern and eventually Central Illinois, this afternoon into tonight. The environment expected to be in place will feature moderate instability, good moisture, good shear and good forcing. This will lead to upwards of a limited (level 2) to elevated (level 3) severe t'storm risk across Northern and portions of Central Illinois. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat, though large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Trends are being monitored for the potential for an upgrade in severe t'storms probabilities. Should this be needed, a special full update will be provided.

​Saturday - Saturday night...
A complex situation is likely for Saturday... Weakening clusters of showers and t'storms will be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, and adjacent states. Some of this activity may re-generate during the afternoon, with additional new scattered showers and t'storms likely to develop across Central and Southern Illinois, and adjacent states as well. This activity, in the form of several clusters, will then move across Central and Southern Illinois, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The environment expected to be in place will feature low instability, good moisture, decent shear and decent forcing. This will lead to upwards of a minimal (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Trends will continue to be monitored for the potential for an upgrade in severe t'storms probabilities in future updates.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon - tonight and Saturday - Saturday night.

JP

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