Fri-Sat, MArch 27-28th Severe T'Storm Event Update #4

(12:15PM - 3/28/20) A storm system moving with continue to bring the threat for severe t'storms to the state, through tonight. With this update we have adjusted severe probabilities based on latest observations and guidance. 

Friday morning-Friday night recap...
Several areas of showers and t'storms moved across the state Friday morning through Friday night. Some of this activity was severe across Central and Southern Illinois, producing large hail. Additionally, heavy rainfall and some flooding occurred for some areas, as training of activity occurred.

Saturday morning-Saturday night...
Areas of showers and t'storms have been ongoing this morning across much of the state. Some of this activity has been severe across portions of Central Illinois, producing large hail. This activity and associated cloud cover has been more widespread than expected, and will likely linger further into the afternoon that previously expected. Activity across portions of Central and southern Illinois will continue in periods through the afternoon and evening. Some of this activity will continue to pose a severe thereat, with all modes of severe weather bring possible. Further north, activity has been ending across Northern and portions of Central Illinois. Some clearing is expected to occur, allowing for destabilization to occur, as a warm front lifts northward. Additional showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa and Eastern Missouri this afternoon. This activity will quickly sweep northeast across Northern and Central Illinois later this afternoon into early tonight. Severe t'storms will be possible to likely, with all modes of severe weather being possible, including tornadoes. A favorable severe weather environment will be in place, with low to moderate instability, good moisture, great forcing and great shear expected. Upwards of an elevated to considerable severe t'storm risk exists across portions of the state. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an increased tornado risk due to the environment expected to be in place. Trends are increasing for the potential for a significant severe t'storm event across the state on Saturday. With this update we have adjusted severe t'storm probabilities based on observations and guidance. It is possible another update may be needed based on how trends progress the next few hours. This has turned into a complex scenario, given the aforementioned more widespread and lingering activity from this morning across the state...which is throwing a wrench into the forecast.
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​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight.

​JP

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