Fri-Sat, March 27-28th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #2

(11:30AM - 3/27/20) A storm system will be moving through the region over the coming days, and along with it will come a severe t'storm threat for today into Saturday. With this update, we have increased and expanded severe t'storm probabilities for both today/tonight and Saturday/Saturday night...as potential increases for a significant severe weather event across the state on Saturday.

This afternoon-tonight...
Areas of showers and t'storms moved across portions of Central and Southern Illinois earlier this morning. Some of this activity was severe, with large hail having occurred. Additional areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will be possible across the state through this afternoon and evening. The main focus will be this evening into tonight...Re-newed development of areas of showers and t'storms will occur across Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois this afternoon and evening, with this activity then likely to push across much of Northern and Central Illinois, this evening through tonight. A marginal environment will be in place, but will be enough to support a minimal to limited severe t'storm threat across Northern and Central Illinois. Large hail will the main severe weather threat.

Saturday morning-Saturday night...
Areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning, as a warm front quickly lifts northward across the state. Some of this activity may be severe, with large hail being the main threat. This activity will quickly clear out of most of the state by late morning to early afternoon, as the aforementioned warm front lifts into Northern Illinois by early to mid afternoon. Along and south of the warm front, a favorable environment will be in place, with low instability, good moisture, great forcing and great shear expected. Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop along a dry line, which is expected to be in the vicinity of the Mississippi River by mid afternoon. This activity will quickly race northeast across the state, posing some severe weather threat. Upwards of an elevated to considerable severe t'storm risk exists across portions of the state. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an increased tornado risk due to the environment expected to be in place. Trends are increasing for the potential for a significant severe t'storm event across the state on Saturday.
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​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight and Saturday morning-Saturday night.

JP

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