Fri-Sun, May 24-26th Severe Weather Threat Update #3

(10:00PM - 5/23/19) Another storm system pushing across the region will bring another multi-day period of severe weather potential to portions of the state Friday through Sunday.

Friday through Friday night...
Weakening areas of scattered showers and t’storms will be ongoing Friday morning across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. This activity will be along and north of a warm front, which is expected to push northward during the day on Friday. New scattered shower and t’storm development is likely to occur across portions of Northern Missouri, Eastern Iowa and Northwest Illinois during the afternoon. This activity will then push northeastward across much of Northern Illinois during later Friday afternoon into Friday evening. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, good moisture and good shear will be in place. This environment will help support an widely scattered to scattered severe t’storm threat across portions of Northern Illinois. All modes of severe weather will be likely with this activity, including a tornado threat, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Given trends in model guidance, we have raised and expanded severe t’storm probabilities across portions of Northern Illinois. Trends will continue to be monitored for further potential adjustments in future updates. Additional periods of showers and t’storms from activity occurring across states to the west will also push across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Friday night. An isolated to widely scattered severe t’storm threat will be likely with this activity as well, given the aforementioned environment in place. Wind and hail will be the main threats with this activity.

Saturday through Saturday night...
Areas of scattered showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. Some of this activity may linger into the afternoon, with renewed development of scattered showers and t’storms likely to develop in the vicinity of a front across portions of Northern and Central Illinois during the afternoon, which will continue into Saturday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture and good shear will be in place. This environment will help support an isolated severe t’storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats.

A severe t’storm threat will likely continue into Sunday as well for portions of the state. This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches.

Below are the updated TAM severe weather forecasts for each upcoming day of this multi-day event.

JP

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