(4:15PM - 5/24/19) *This update is only to amend the forecast for today into tonight. We will be slightly expanding and changing location of severe t’storm probabilities for portions of the state, based on observations and model guidance.
This afternoon into tonight...
Weakening areas of scattered showers and t’storms have been ongoing this morning and afternoon across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. The southern end of this activity was severe across portions of Central Illinois for a time this afternoon, as it interacted with the warm front. This activity has since diminished. The activity overall this morning and afternoon has been occurring along and north of a warm front, which is expected to push northward into the evening from its current location in Central Illinois to Northern Illinois later this evening and tonight. New scattered shower and t’storm development is likely to occur across portions of Northern Missouri, Eastern Iowa, Northern and Central Illinois this afternoon and evening. This activity will then push northeastward across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois this evening and tonight. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, good to great moisture and great shear will be in place. This environment will help support a widely scattered to scattered severe t’storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. All modes of severe weather will be likely with this activity, including a tornado threat, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Additional periods of showers and t’storms from activity occurring across states to the west will also push across portions of Northern and Central Illinois tonight. An isolated to widely scattered severe t’storm threat will be likely with this activity as well, given the aforementioned environment in place. Wind and hail will be the main threats with this activity.
Another storm system pushing across the region will bring another multi-day period of severe weather potential to portions of the state Friday through Sunday.
Saturday through Saturday night...
Areas of scattered showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. Some of this activity may linger through the day on Saturday for some areas, with renewed development of scattered showers and t’storms possible to develop in the vicinity of a front and outflow boundaries across portions of Northern and Central Illinois during the afternoon, which will continue into Saturday night.Additional periods of showers and t’storms from activity occurring across states to the west will also push across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture and good shear will be in place. This environment will help support an isolated severe t’storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats.
A severe t’storm threat will likely continue into Sunday as well for portions of the state. This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches.
Below are the updated TAM severe weather forecasts for each upcoming day of this multi-day event.
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