Illinois Storm Chasers - Bringing Our Best, During Mother Natures Worst!
  • Home
  • Weather Information
  • Services
  • Resources
    • Illinois NWS Offices
    • Illinois News Media
    • Learning Resources
    • Illinois Severe Weather Info
    • Illinois Winter Weather Info
    • Weather Alerts Service
    • Storm Chasing Info
  • About
  • Contact
  • Store

Jan 10th-11th Winter Storm Threat Increasing This Weekend (Update #2)

1/8/2020

2 Comments

 
We continue to watch this weather system closely and confidence is slowly increasing that a winter storm with potentially significant impacts could affect portions of the state this coming weekend. Now, not all of Illinois will see wintry weather and as of right now, model guidance continues to favor northern and portions of western Illinois for wintry weather with the rest of the state remaining too warm and therefore seeing just plain rain. Let's dig into the latest below.....
If you remember from a couple days ago, our weather system of interest was well out over the western northern Pacific Ocean but over the last 48 hours or so, it has continued steadily eastward and at this time, is now located off the coast of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest (circled in blue). By tomorrow morning, it will be ashore the western United States and this is when we should start to see a clearer picture on what exactly to expect from this system. Once it is over land, it will be able to be sampled by weather balloons and that data will be ingested into the computer models we look at. 
Picture
Even though we continue to see disagreement among model guidance, we are slowly starting to shrink the circle of possible outcomes, as you can see below. This is again an ensemble model forecast showing possible surface low locations at noon on Saturday with a decent cluster across southern Illinois. So yes, even though the exact track isn't set in stone yet, we are slowly getting closer. If the track ends up through southern Illinois, you can almost bet on significant wintry weather impacting northern portions of the state, as what current thinking is. 
Picture
Looking at one model and one possible scenario, the evolution follows as this...

1. Widespread rains spread into much of Illinois Friday afternoon and evening with portions of northern Illinois seeing a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow as colder low level air will be available. This first round would last into Saturday morning. Some guidance suggests a lull in activity while others suggest wintry precipitation will continue right through much of Saturday. 

2. As the surface low moves northeast during the afternoon and evening hours, a renewed area of precipitation looks to develop on the west and northwest side of the surface low. This is the period to look out for a more widespread shot at snow accumulations, some possibly significant if the storm system takes a favorable track. 

**We continue to stress that this remains a tricky and complex setup and forecast and trying to pinpoint the snow and ice zones remains difficult at this stage. We can however say that confidence is increasing for a winter storm affecting northern and western portions of the state Friday afternoon/evening through Saturday night**
Picture
Our current thoughts regarding placement of snow and snow/ice zones are as followed below along with best guess on a storm track at this time but, both of these things are subject to change. **If you are looking for exact expected snowfall totals at this time, you're in the wrong place and we are not confident enough in that just yet**. 
Picture
To receive updates from us via the in-telligent app, text ISC to 833-369-3800



MP
2 Comments
Allen Ackley
1/8/2020 03:11:25 pm

I have great confidence in your forcasting,please keep me posted. Thanks

Reply
Popeye
1/8/2020 07:08:42 pm

Okay, exact amount not required, how about a ball park guestimate?

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018

    categories

    All
    Central Illinois
    Forecasts
    General
    Northern Illinois
    Recaps
    Southern Illinois

    RSS Feed

Contact Us
staff@illinoisstormchasers.com
© 2015-2023 Illinois Storm Chasers, LLC (ISC)
Add us on social media!
  • Home
  • Weather Information
  • Services
  • Resources
    • Illinois NWS Offices
    • Illinois News Media
    • Learning Resources
    • Illinois Severe Weather Info
    • Illinois Winter Weather Info
    • Weather Alerts Service
    • Storm Chasing Info
  • About
  • Contact
  • Store