Late Week/Weekend Heavy Rain/Flood And Severe T'Storm Threat Update #1

(12:30PM - 1/8/20) A series of disturbances will move through the region Thursday through Saturday, bringing significant weather for the state in the form of snow, ice, heavy rain/flooding and severe t'storms. This post is directed towards the heavy rain/flood and severe t'storm threat aspect. Refer to the snow/ice updates regarding the wintry side of things.

Thursday morning-Friday morning...
An initial disturbance/storm system will eject out across the region on Thursday. This disturbance will bring with it the chance for scattered showers and areas of rain across the state, from Thursday morning through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts during this time will remain on the lighter side, generally around or under 0.50". ​

Friday morning-Saturday afternoon...
As a second and third disturbance eject out across the region, the main event will occur during the Friday morning to Saturday afternoon time frame. The setup features... A frontal boundary draped across the state/region, two disturbances ejecting out across the region, an open supply of moisture from the Gulf, and a strong jet stream moving through the region associated with the mean trough. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of heavy rain and t'storms across much of the state during this time-frame. Upwards of 2-5" of rain will be likely during this period of time, which will lead to low to moderate flood concerns across Central and Southern Illinois. Additionally, given the aforementioned strong jet stream and high moisture in place, coupled with some instability, will lead to some severe t'storm threat across Southern Illinois. At this time the severe t'storm threat is expected to be on the lower end of the scale.

Final rainfall totals for this whole multi-day period will likely range from 1-5" across much of the state. Widespread low to moderate flooding will also be of concern.

Additional updates will be needed over the coming days regarding this period of significant weather.

JP

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