Mid-week Snow Event Potential (Wed-Thur, Feb 12-13th) Update #1

(10:30AM - 2/10/20) Another storm system is expected to move through the region mid-week, bringing with it the next threat for accumulating snow to the state.

Synopsis...
A complex setup is expected for mid-week, as a disturbance across the Southwestern US is expected to eject out into the Central US. As this happens, a disturbance will be dropping into the Central US, southward from Canada. Both disturbances will interact, leading to the development of a storm system, which will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday. Not surprisingly, model guidance is in some disagreement regarding this period. Track of the storm system, location of the main snowfall axis and snowfall amounts are all in question, though the gap of disagreement has narrowed over the past 24 hours. Even with the disagreement, there is currently high agreement in a 2-5" snowfall across the heart of the state. However, given the current and likely continued model guidance disagreement, some changes are likely in future updates as we approach this time period.

At this time... Precipitation is expected to spread into Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning, then across the rest of the state during the rest of the Wednesday morning into the afternoon. This activity will then continue through Wednesday night, before ending Thursday morning from west to east across the state. Precipitation will be all snow across Northern and Central Illinois. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible during this time-frame across the aforementioned areas. Across Southern Illinois, precipitation looks to stay predominately rain as of now. 

Final snowfall totals in an axis across the hart of the state will likely be in the 2-5" range. Snowfall amounts will taper on either side of this main axis.

​Below is the snowfall forecast for this event.

​JP

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