Mid-Week Snow Event Set To Impact The State (Wed-Thur, Feb 12-13th) Update #6

(9:30PM - 2/11/20) A storm system is expected to move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, with accumulating snow expected across a good portion of the state.

Synopsis...
A complex setup is expected the next few days, as a disturbance across the Southwestern US ejects out into the Central US. As this happens, a disturbance is dropping into the Central US, southward from Canada. Both disturbances will interact, leading to the development of a storm system, which will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday. Not surprisingly, model guidance has been in some continued disagreement regarding this period. Track of the storm system, location of the main snowfall axis and snowfall amounts have all been in question, though agreement finally appears to be occurring.

Precipitation is expected to spread into Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning, then across the rest of the state during the rest of the Wednesday morning and afternoon. This activity will then continue from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, before ending Thursday morning. Precipitation will be all snow across Northern and Central Illinois, though some mixed precipitation may be possible across Central Illinois at times. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible at times during across Central Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening as well...Otherwise generally light snow is expected across Northern and Central Illinois during this event. Temperatures and snowfall ratios will start off on the marginal end Wednesday morning through evening, before growing more favorable Wednesday night into Thursday. It should be noted that across Southern Illinois, precipitation looks to stay predominately rain, with just a chance of isolated backside snow showers late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Below are visuals of estimated start and end times of precipitation for this event.

Final snowfall totals in an axis across the heart of the state will be in the 2-5" range, with amounts tapering lower on either side of this main axis.

​Below is the snowfall forecast for this event.

​JP

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