Mid-Week Snow Event (Wed-Thur, Feb 12-13th) Update #4

(11:45AM - 2/11/20) Another storm system is expected to move through the region mid-week, bringing with it the likelihood for accumulating snow to the state.

Synopsis...
A complex setup is expected for mid-week, as a disturbance across the Southwestern US is expected to eject out into the Central US. As this happens, a disturbance will be dropping into the Central US, southward from Canada. Both disturbances will interact, leading to the development of a storm system, which will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday. Not surprisingly, model guidance has been in some disagreement regarding this period. Track of the storm system, location of the main snowfall axis and snowfall amounts have all been in question, though the gap of disagreement has been narrowing with time. Even with the disagreement, there is currently high agreement in a 2-5" snowfall across the heart of the state. However, given the current and likely continued model guidance disagreement, some changes are likely in future updates as we approach this time period. With this update we have pulled the main snowfall axis a bit further south in Central Illinois, as confidence grows in that scenario.

Precipitation is expected to spread into Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning, then across the rest of the state during the rest of the Wednesday morning and afternoon. This activity will then continue through through Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, before ending Thursday morning. Precipitation will be all snow across Northern and Central Illinois. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible at times during across Central Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening, otherwise generally light snow is expected across Northern and Central Illinois during this event. Across Southern Illinois, precipitation looks to stay predominately rain. 

Final snowfall totals in an axis across the hart of the state will likely be in the 2-5" range. Snowfall amounts will taper on either side of this main axis.

​Below is the snowfall forecast for this event.

​​​JP

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