Midweek Snowstorm Taking Aim On The State (Wed-Thur, Feb 5-6th) Update #5

​(11:00AM - 2/5/20) In the wake of two lead waves moving through the region, a main storm system will be moving through the region, today through Thursday. Accumulating snow will be likely across a large portion of the state during this time.

​Synopsis...
Two lead waves moved through the region Monday through last night, ahead of the main storm system which will be moving through the region today through Thursday. As has been the case much of this winter season, model guidance has had a difficult time handling the overall situation, even in the short term. However, at this time model guidance and observations support the scenario expected to unfold with the main storm system, today through Thursday.

Wednesday afternoon-Thursday afternoon...
​The main storm system in this sequence will move through the region, today through Thursday. Snow has started to spread into Southwest and Western Illinois this morning. This activity is expected to spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois this afternoon and evening, then continuing through Thursday morning, before ending. Across Northern and Central Illinois precipitation will fall as snow, with a mix of rain/snow/sleet/ice likely across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, and mostly rain expected across far Southern Illinois. Snow will likely be light to moderate for the duration of this period, with  periods of heavy snow being possible across Central Illinois this this morning through this evening. Upwards of 2-5" of snow will be likely within the main snowfall axis across the heart of the state, with tapering amounts on either side of this main axis. Locally higher amounts in excess of 5” are possible within the main axis.

It should be noted that across Northeast Illinois, conditions will be favorable for lake enhanced and lake effect snow. This will likely keep snow going into Thursday night across this area, while also adding to snowfall totals, with locally higher amounts in excess of 5" possible across this area as well. Minor sleet/ice accumulation is possible across portions of Central/Southern Illinois.

Final snowfall totals of 2-5" are expected in an axis across the state, with tapering amounts on either side of this axis. Locally higher amounts in excess of 5” are possible within the main axis, and in Northeast Illinois due the aforementioned lake enhancement. Minor sleet/ice accumulation is possible across portions of Central/Southern Illinois.

​Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event.

JP

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