(11:45AM - 6/22/20) Several disturbances moving through the region will bring the chance for severe t'storms to the state, through tonight.
Several disturbances moving through the region today will bring a low end severe t'storm threat to the state, through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms have been ongoing this morning across portions of Northern, Western and Southern Illinois...associated with a lead disturbance moving through. Some of this activity will persist into the afternoon, with intensification likely, especially across Southern and Eastern Illinois. Additionally, new scattered showers and t'storms will develop across the state and surrounding states during the afternoon, as the next disturbance moves. Both previous re-generated morning activity and new afternoon development will push eastward across much of the state in the form of several clusters/lines, from this afternoon into early tonight. The environment expected to be in place will feature low to moderate instability, decent to good moisture, decent shear and decent forcing. This will lead to a low end severe t'storm threat across the state, with a minimal (level 1) severe t'storm risk expected. Large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Trends will continue to be monitored for the potential for a more concentrated area and/or increased overall severe t'storm potential for portions of the state. Should one or both of these become more likely, an upgrade in severe t'storm risk may be needed in a future update.
Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.
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