Mon, Oct 11th Severe T'Storm Episode update #3

(11:45AM - 10/11/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through early tonight.

Summary...
A storm system moved through the Southern Plains on Sunday, and will move through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes today. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through early tonight. With this update we have upgraded portions of the state to a level 2/sporadic severe t'storm risk for today. With this update little to no change was needed to the previous forecast with this update.

​Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight, Oct 11th...
Areas of rain and t'storms have been moving across Northwestern, Western and Southwestern Illinois this morning. It is expected that some re-generation and re-development of this activity will occur, as this activity spreads northeastward across the state this afternoon. Some of this activity could pose a severe t'storm threat through the day. Another round of showers and t'storms developing along a cold front in Missouri this morning will further develop, and will spread northeastward across the state this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity will also pose a severe t'storm threat during this time. As mentioned above, some severe t'storm potential will exist across the state today, with an environment supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 500-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, high shear, and decent lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Leading into today there had been concerns regarding the amount of clearing/sun that will be seen across the state today for destabilization purposes. It appears those concerns were valid, and will be a limiting factor preventing higher severe t'storm potential for today.

​Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP