Mon-Thur, Feb 3-6th Wintry Period Update #4

(8:00PM - 2/2/20) Multiple disturbances/storm systems are expected to move through the region this week, bringing with them the chance for accumulating wintry precipitation across the state.

Synopsis...
For the past several days, model guidance has been showing wintry potential during this period. However, guidance has also been in a high amount of disagreement. From showing a big storm system, to multiple smaller waves, things have been all over the board. At this time, the most likely scenario that has the highest amount of agreement is for multiple waves to be likely across the state during this period. Each wave will have the chance for bring accumulating wintry precipitation to portions of the state. We will continue to monitor tends for futures updates, as nothing is set in stone yet.

Monday afternoon-Tuesday afternoon...
The first disturbance is expected to move through the region, Monday into Tuesday. An area of scattered and light precipitation will spread across the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Central and Southern Illinois will see rain during this time, with a rain and snow mix possible across Northern Illinois. Little to no snow accumulation is expected across Northern Illinois during this time.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning...
​A second disturbance is expected to move through the region, Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be no significant break in precipitation between the first and second waves, across Central and Southern Illinois. An area of light precipitation will continue to spread across the state Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Across Central Illinois, rain will transition to snow Tuesday evening, and then continuing into Wednesday afternoon. Southern Illinois will see rain during this time, with little to no precipitation expected across Northern Illinois. Light snowfall accumulation will be possible across Central Illinois during this time.

Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning...
​A third and more organized disturbance is expected to move through the region, Wednesday into Thursday. An area of precipitation will once again push across the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Across much of Northeast, Central and Southern Illinois, this precipitation will fall as snow. Across Northwest no precipitation may occur, with rain predominately expected across Southeast Illinois. Light to moderate snowfall accumulations will be possible across Central and Southern Illinois during this time.

A fourth wave is possible Thursday into Friday, but too much model guidance disagreement exists to mention at this time. Trends will be monitored for future updates.

​JP

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