Mon-Thur, May 6-9th Heavy Rain/Flood Threat

(11:45PM - 5/4/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

After a wet week with widespread high rainfall totals and flooding for the state last week, another wet period is on the way for this upcoming week. A lingering frontal boundary with several disturbances moving through the region will bring several periods of rain and t'storms to much of the state Monday through Thursday. During this period, there will be a some rounds of more organized activity.

​The first more organized and widespread round of activity will be across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. The second round will be across Central and Southern Illinois Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The third round will affect much of the state, from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening.

Final rainfall totals will likely end up around or in excess of 1" across much of the state during this period, with areas of higher rainfall totals likely. As this time period approaches and the areas of heavier rainfall totals become more certain, higher flood probabilities will likely be needed on our TAM forecast map. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread minor flood potential is likely.

Below is our first TAM flood forecast.

JP

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