Mon-Tue, May 3-4th Severe T'Storm Risk

(11:45PM - 5/1/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region Monday into Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Model guidance has been showing this potential for a few days, and has been in decent agreement.

Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest Illinois Monday afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolates tornado will be the main threats.

As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolates tornado will be the main threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

JP