Mon-Tue, May 3-4th Severe T'Storm Risk Update #4

(9:00PM - 5/3/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to portions of the state tonight through Tuesday evening.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances will continue to eject out through the Central US, moving through the region through Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to portions of the state, tonight through Tuesday evening. Model guidance and real time observations support the going forecast.

​Forecast...
Tonight-Tuesday Morning...
A broken line of scattered showers and t'storms currently sits in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. This line will continue to push southeast for the next several hours, posing some severe risk. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms that is ongoing across Oklahoma and Texas will lift northeastward overnight. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, tonight through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned good environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, tonight through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats.

Tuesday Morning-Tuesday Evening...
In the wake of early day activity and as another disturbance moves through the region,  a new round of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. An  environment featuring instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points of 57-63, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned marginal environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Summary...
This Afternoon-This Evening...
A broken line of scattered showers and t'storm spread across much of Central Illinois this afternoon and evening, with several severe t'storms and even a few brief tornadoes having occurred.

JP