Mon-Wed, April 6-8th Severe T'Storm Threat #4

(9:30PM - 4/7/20) Multiple disturbances will move through the region through Wednesday, bringing continued chances of severe t'storms to the state.

Monday morning - Monday night recap...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms occurred across portions of Northern Illinois Monday afternoon and evening, near a warm front that lifted northward into Northern Illinois through the day. As a main disturbance moved through the area, additional scattered showers and t'storms developed and spread across Northern Illinois Tuesday night...some of which were strong, producing small hail.

Tonight...
Scattered showers and t'storms have been ongoing across Northern Illinois late this afternoon through this evening. Several of these t'storms have been severe, with large hail having occurred. Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will continue to be possible as a front pushes southward from Northern and into Central Illinois. An isolated severe t'storm will continue to be possible with this activity, with large hail being the main threat.

It is possible that some activity may also back-build and develop along the cold front down into Central/Southern Illinois and Missouri, which would then push across Central and Southern Illinois tonight. However, this scenario is highly in question given stronger capping in place with southward extent... Thus, will maintain general t'storm chances for these areas given low potential, but have removed minimal severe t'storm chances.

Wednesday morning - Wednesday night...
Areas of showers and t'storms may be ongoing across Iowa and Minnesota Wednesday morning into afternoon, associated with the next disturbance moving through the region. Additional scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a advancing cold front, from Iowa down into Missouri Wednesday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Central and Southern Illinois, from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. An environment featuring low to moderate instability, mediocre moisture, good forcing and good shear will be in place. This will help support a minimal to limited severe t'storm threat across much of Central and Southern. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for tonight and Wednesday morning - Wednesday night.

​JP

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