Mon-Wed, April 6-8th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #1

(12:30PM - 4/6/20) Multiple disturbances will move through the region today through Wednesday, bringing a daily chance of severe t'storms to the state.

This afternoon-Tonight...
A warm front has been rapidly lifting northward across the state today. A few isolated showers and t'storms will be possible across Northern Illinois this afternoon and evening, as the warm front lifts into the area. As a disturbance moves across the area, there will be a better focus for elevated scattered shower and t'storm development across Northern Illinois and vicinity, this evening into tonight. This activity will then continue to be possible through very early Tuesday morning, across Northern and Eastern Illinois. A marginal environment will be in place, but will be enough to support a minimal severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern Illinois. Hail will the the main severe weather threat.

Tuesday morning-Tuesday night...
A few lingering showers and t'storms may be ongoing early Tuesday morning across Northeast and Eastern Illinois, which will quickly clear the area by mid morning. In the wake of this early activity, clearing and destabilization is expected to occur ahead of the next approaching disturbance. Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a advancing frontal boundary, across Southern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and Eastern Iowa. This activity will then sweep southeastward across Northern and Central Illinois, from Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday night. It should be noted that this is some disagreement on extent of development with this round of activity, and it will have to be monitored for changes in later updates. An environment featuring low to moderate instability, modest moisture, modest forcing and decent shear will be in place. This will help support a minimal to limited severe t'storm threat across Northern and Central Illinois. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday morning-Wednesday night...
While it is still a bit too far out to go into specifics, it is looking increasingly possible that another disturbance will move through the area on Wednesday. It appears conditions will be favorable for some severe t'storms risk across Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. More information regarding the severe t'storm threat on Wednesday will be provided in future updates.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight and Tuesday morning-Tuesday night.

​JP

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