Mon-Wed, Feb 3-5th Wintry Period Update #2

(5:45AM - 2/4/20) Multiple disturbances/storm systems are expected to move through the region the next few days, bringing with them the chance for accumulating wintry precipitation across portions the state.

Synopsis...
No real changes are needed with this update, thus will continue with previous forecast.

For the past several days, model guidance has been showing wintry potential for this week. However, guidance has also been in a high amount of disagreement. From showing a big storm system, to multiple smaller waves, things have been all over the board. As time has gone on, guidance has honed in on two lead waves that are expected to move through the region, through Wednesday...followed by a main storm system to move through the region Wednesday and Thursday. We have decided to split this period up, focusing on the two lead waves with this post, and the main storm system in separate updates...as it will be more of a concern.

Monday afternoon-Tuesday afternoon...
The first disturbance has been moving through the region, yesterday into today. Areas of scattered and light precipitation been moving across the state since yesterday afternoon, and will continue to into this afternoon. Precipitation has been rain across Central and Southern Illinois. While much of Northern Illinois has been dry this far, an isolated rain/snow/mix shower will continue to be possible today. Little to no snow accumulation is expected across Northern Illinois during this time.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning...
​A second disturbance is expected to move through the region, today into Wednesday. An area of precipitation will once again develop and spread across the state, this afternoon through late tonight or early Wednesday morning. This activity will be more widespread and organized, compared to the first wave. Across Central Illinois, rain will transition to snow this evening, and then continuing into Wednesday morning. There is also the potential for a mix across portions of Central Illinois as well. Southern Illinois will see rain during this time, with little to no precipitation expected across Northern Illinois. Light snowfall accumulation upwards of a dusting to 1.5" and ice accumulation up to a glaze will be possible across Central Illinois during this time.

Below is the TAM snowfall forecast this this period.

JP

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