Mon-Wed, May 6-8th Severe weather Threat Update #2

(1:30PM - 5/6/19) A frontal boundary lingering across the state with disturbances moving through, will aide in promoting a very low end severe threat across portions of the state Monday and Tuesday.

This afternoon and tonight...
A few scattered showers and isolated t'storms have been pushing across portions of Northern Illinois this morning and afternoon. Additional scattered showers and t'storms will develop during the afternoon along a cold front moving southward across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. This activity will be in an environment featuring low instability, meager moisture and low shear. This environment will help support a very low end strong to severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. This activity will persist in periods across portions of Northern and Central Illinois into tonight.

​Tuesday afternoon and night...
In the wake of early day showers and isolated t'storms across Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois...New development of scattered showers and t'storms will occur along a cold front across Southern Illinois during the afternoon. This activity will be in an environment featuring modest instability, modest moisture and decent shear. This environment will help support a low end strong to severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. Activity will persist across Southern Illinois into Tuesday night.

Wednesday afternoon and night...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will likely be spreading across portions of the state Wednesday morning. In the wake of this activity, a warm front will push northward across the state, making it into Central Illinois during the afternoon. Two scenarios are possible for Wednesday. The first scenario is morning activity lingers across the state much of the day, with little to no severe weather threat. In the second scenario...Should enough clearing and destabilization occur, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms would develop across portions of Central Illinois during the afternoon, along a front pushing across the state. This activity would then spread across portions of Central and Northern Illinois into the evening. This activity would be in an environment featuring modest instability, modest moisture and decent shear. This environment will help support a low end strong to severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. For now will go with the middle ground between each solution, though slightly favoring the first solution given past history in similar situations. Should the second scenario eventually look more likely, higher severe weather probabilities would be needed.

Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecasts for each day.

JP

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