Mon-Wed, May 6-8th Severe Weather Threat Update #3

(9:30PM - 5/6/19) A frontal boundary lingering across the state with disturbances moving through, will aide in promoting a very low end severe threat across portions of the state Monday and Tuesday.

Any strong to severe t'storm threat has ended for the state for tonight (Monday).

Tuesday afternoon and night...
In the wake of early day showers and isolated t'storms across Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois...New development of scattered showers and t'storms will occur along a cold front across Central and Southern Illinois during the afternoon. This activity will be in an environment featuring modest instability, modest moisture and decent shear. This environment will help support a low end strong to severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. Activity will persist across Central and Southern Illinois into Tuesday night.

​Wednesday afternoon and night...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will likely be spreading across portions of the state Wednesday morning. In the wake of this activity, a warm front will push northward across the state, making it into Central Illinois during the afternoon. Two scenarios are possible for Wednesday. The first scenario is a large complex of rain and t'storm pushes into the state and lingers much of the day, with little to no severe weather threat. In the second scenario...Should enough clearing and destabilization occur ahead of the approaching large complex of rain and t'storms, redevelopment and strengthening would occur. This activity would then spread across much of the state into the evening. This activity would be in an environment featuring modest instability, modest moisture and decent shear. This environment will help support a low end strong to severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail would be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. For now will go with the middle ground between each solution, though slightly favoring the first solution given past history in similar situations. Should the second scenario eventually look more likely, higher severe weather probabilities would be needed.

Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecasts for each day.

JP

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