Mon-Wed, May 6-8th Severe Weather Threat Update #5

​(5:55AM - 5/8/19) After rainy and stormy periods the past few days, the main storm system will finally begin to eject out into the region, bringing one final day of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state on Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon and night...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms have been spreading northward across portions of Northern and Central this morning, and will continue to into late morning. In the wake of this activity, a warm front will push northward across the state, making it into Northern Illinois during the afternoon. Two scenarios are still possible for today. The first scenario is a large complex of rain and t'storm pushes into the state during the afternoon in a weakening phase, and lingers much of the day. This would lead to little potential clearing and destabilization, thus little to no severe weather threat. In the second scenario...Enough clearing and destabilization would likely occur ahead of the approaching weakening large complex of rain and t'storms, redevelopment of new activity would likely occur in the vicinity of the IL/IA/MO border area. This activity would then spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois into early Wednesday night. This activity would be in an environment featuring modest instability, modest moisture and good shear. This environment will help support a low end severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail would be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. Sounding also show a tornado threat would exist as well. For now will go with the middle ground between each solution, though slightly favoring the first solution given past history in similar situations. Should the second scenario eventually look more likely, higher severe weather probabilities would be needed.

Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecasts for the event.

JP

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