Potential Weekend Accumulating Snow?

(9:30PM - 11/20/19) A storm system is expected to move across the region Friday into Saturday, which potentially could bring accumulating snow to portions of the state.

Over the past several days model guidance has been hinting at the potential for accumulating snow across portions of the state, Friday night into Saturday afternoon, as a storm system moves through the region. However, there has been a high amount of disagreement regarding this potential event...Ranging from no storm system at all on some model guidance, to a pronounced storm system with several inches of snow on other model guidance. The main issue giving model guidance a fuss is a complex scenario in place, which will feature a southern stream disturbance across the Inter-mountain West and a potential partial phase or shearing, with a northern stream disturbance dropping in from Canada. How these two disturbances evolve and interact will determine how the storm system evolves for the region.

Two scenarios are in play at this time...
#1... The southern stream disturbance is slower at ejecting out into the Plains, with a northern stream disturbance digging into the Northern U.S. This would allow for partial phasing to occur, thus a more pronounced storm system with the potential for at least a couple inches of snow within a swath across the heart of the state.
#2... The southern stream disturbance is faster and ejecting out, misses a partial phase with the northern stream disturbance, and is instead sheared out. This would lead to a very weak storm system, with little to no chance for snow across the state.

​More recently, model guidance has been trending towards the above mentioned scenario #1.  Further updates will be provided over the coming days. Note: On the below map, the area of "accumulation possible" does not mean you will see snowfall accumulation. This is merely a depiction of where the range of model guidance has would suggest accumulating snow would be possible, should it occur.

JP

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