Sat, Feb. 23rd Severe Weather Threat Update #1

(10:30PM - 2/21/19) The chances for a severe weather event impacting the region, including portions of Illinois, are increasing for Saturday...

A strengthening storm system will be moving through the region this weekend, along with it bringing an early season severe weather threat for portions of Central and Southern Illinois. An isolated strong to severe t'storm is possible Saturday morning across portions of Southern Illinois, associated with warm air advection t'storms pushing across the area. However, this is a lower end threat and the main focus will be later in the day.

A cold front will push towards the state during Saturday afternoon, with the environment ahead of this front being favorable for some severe t'storms. The environment will feature temps into the 60's, dew points in the low-mid 60's, high shear, a good flow aloft, though low instability. The great moisture and shear will likely compensate for the low instability in this case. However, lower instability could mean less severe threat, and more instability could mean a great severe threat. At this time it appears a broken line of t'storms will develop along the advancing cold front in Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon. This activity will quickly sweep northeastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois during the mid afternoon into evening hours. Some severe threat is likely, with all modes of risk being possible...including a tornado threat across Southern Illinois

Below is our TAM severe weather forecast for the state for this event. Further updates are likely on this potential as needed.

JP

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