Sat, Feb. 23rd Severe Weather Threat Update #3

(9:45PM - 2/22/19) A severe weather threat continues to look likely across the southern half of the state Saturday afternoon and evening...

Model guidance continues to be in overall decent agreement regarding the severe threat across portions of Central and all of Southern Illinois on Saturday afternoon and evening. A cold front will push towards the state during Saturday afternoon, with the environment ahead of this front being favorable for some severe t'storms. The environment will feature temps into the 60's, dew points in the low 60's, high shear, a good flow aloft, though low instability. The great moisture and shear will likely compensate for the low instability in this case. However, lower instability could mean less severe threat, and more instability could mean a great severe threat. At this time it appears a broken line of t'storms will develop along the advancing cold front in Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon. This activity will quickly sweep northeastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois during the mid afternoon into evening hours. Some severe threat is likely, with all modes of risk being possible...including a tornado threat across Southern Illinois. It should be noted that a few strong/non-severe t'storms may be possible across Northern Illinois as well, with small hail being possible.

Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecast for the state for this event.

JP

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