Sat, March 27th Severe T’Storm Risk Update #3

(11:45AM - 3/27/21) A storm system will move through the region today, bringing an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat to Central and Southern Illinois, this afternoon into tonight.

Summary...
A storm system moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes today into tonight will bring an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat to Central and Southern Illinois, this afternoon into tonight. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance. No significant changes were needed with this update.

Forecast...
Isolated to scattered showers and isolated t'storms have pushed across portions of Northern and Western Illinois this morning. In the wake of this early activity, a marginal environment develop across a large potion of the state, favoring Central and Southern Illinois. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and good shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes into Northern and Central Illinois during the afternoon, scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then spread eastward across much of the state, this afternoon into tonight. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk will be possible across much of Central and Southern Illinois, where an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm is expected. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the threats with any severe t’storm.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP