Sat-Mon, June 15-17th Severe Weather Threat Update #3

(10:45AM - 6/16/19) A disturbance pushing through the region, along with a lingering front, will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through Monday.

Saturday Recap...
Areas of showers and t’storms pushed across much of the state Saturday morning into the afternoon. In the wake of this activity, additional development of scattered showers and t’storms occurred across Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity then moved across much of the state Saturday evening into night. Some of this activity was severe, with all modes of severe weather having occurred.

Today into tonight...
A few areas of isolated showers and t’storms have been ongoing across portions of Northern and Southern Illinois this morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push east-northeastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats.

Monday into Monday night...
A few areas of isolated to scattered showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Monday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push east-northeastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into Monday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats

Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for Sunday/Night and Monday/Night.

JP

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