Sat-Sun, Jan 30-31st Winter Storm Update #2

(10:00PM - 1/28/20) A winter storm is expected to impact the state and region, Saturday through. This winter storm is expected to bring significant snowfall accumulation to portions of the state.

Summary...
A winter storm is expected to impact the state and region Saturday through Sunday, and is expected to bring significant snowfall accumulation to portions of the state. The storm system will eject out into the Plains on Saturday, then moving eastward through the mid-Mississippi Valley and eventually Ohio Valley on Sunday. Model guidance has been showing the potential for a winter storm during this period for several days now. While is winter storm is now expected, there is still a bit uncertainty regarding track and strength of this system...Which will affect the location of the snowfall axis and snowfall amounts. However, it should be noted that at this time the spread among model guidance is relatively small for this range, and the amount of overall agreement is high. With this update little in the way of change was needed, due to continued model continuity.

Forecast...
Northern Illinois: 
Snow is expected to spread across Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon and evening. Snow of varying intensity will then continue through late Sunday afternoon or evening. The most significant period of snow will be from late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. During this time periods of heavy snow will be possible, with high snowfall rates in excess of 1" an hour likely at times. In addition to the snow, wind gusts of 30-40MPH will be possible, late Saturday afternoon evening through early Sunday day morning.

Additionally, lake enhancement is expected across Northeast Illinois during the event, with a small window for lake effect snow on the backside as the storm departs the region.

Central Illinois...
Precipitation will spread across Central Illinois later Saturday afternoon. Precipitation will then continue through Sunday afternoon. For much of the event, areas south of I-74 will generally receive rain (Ending as snow showers), while areas along and north of I-74 receive mostly snow.

Southern Illinois...
Areas of rain will spread into Southern Illinois Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. Periods of rain will then continue through Sunday morning, before precipitation ends as rain/snow showers Sunday afternoon and evening.

What's expected...
A swath of snowfall totals of 4-7" is expected across Northern Illinois, with locally higher amounts possible. There will be a sharp gradient where snowfall totals rapidly taper across Central Illinois. This event is expected to feature lower than average snowfall ratios due to marginal temperatures, meaning it will be a heavy/wet snow.

​Below are the snow and ice forecasts for this event.

JP