Sat-Sun, June 15-16th Severe Weather Threat Update #1

(1:45AM - 6/15/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday into Saturday night...
Areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be ongoing across the state Saturday morning, likely continuing into the afternoon for some areas. In the wake of early activity, some clearing and destabilization will occur. As the main disturbance approaches during the afternoon, new scattered shower and t'storm development is likely across Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity will push east-southeastward across much of the state during the afternoon and on into Saturday night. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture, and good shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across much of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more and earlier clearing and more destabilization look likely across the risk area, an upgrade is severe t'storm probabilities may be needed for some areas in future updates.

Sunday into Sunday night...
A few areas of isolated showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of the state Sunday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push east-southeastward across these areas into Sunday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Central and Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats

Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for Saturday/night and Sunday/night.

JP

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