Sat-Sun, Mar. 9-10th Severe Weather/High Wind Threat Update #1

(1:00PM - 3/8/19) Another storm system will be pushing through the region this weekend, bringing a severe weather and high wind threat to the state Saturday and Sunday.

A widespread area of rain and t'storms is likely to spread across the state Saturday morning and afternoon. An isolated strong to severe storm will be possible across Southern Illinois with this activity. The main focus will be Saturday mid-afternoon into evening. In the wake of earlier activity, some destabilization will occur. The environment will feature temps into the 60's, dew points in the low 60's, high shear, a good flow aloft, though low instability. This environment will be supportive of isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms. However, it should be noted that if more destabilization and clearing occurs, higher instability could mean a higher severe threat. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across Eastern Missouri down into Arkansas. This activity will rapidly push east-northeast across Central and Southern Illinois during the afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned environment in place, some severe threat is likely, with all modes of risk being possible...including a tornado threat across Southern Illinois.

A high wind threat is also possible across much of the state Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, with wind gusts of 35-50mph being likely. Winds will increase Saturday afternoon as the dry slot of the storm system moves in, with winds continuing overnight and into Sunday morning on the backside of the system.

​Below are our TAM severe weather and wind threat forecasts.

JP

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