Snowstorm Continues To Look Likely Tue-Wed, Feb 25-26th Update #4

(10:00PM - 2/23/20) There continues to be a growing likelihood that a snowstorm will impact the region Tuesday-Wednesday. This storm system will likely bring several inches of snow to portions of the state during this time period.

Synopsis...
Model guidance has been showing the potential for a storm system to impact the region during this time-frame for the past several days. However...As has been the case all of this winter, even though there is high support for a snowstorm to affect the region during this period, there has been disagreement regarding track and strength of the storm system...as well as where and how much accumulating snow will occur. As time has gone on the amount of disagreement among model guidance has fluctuated, with still a fluid situation as of this update. This will be yet another complex scenario, with a few main waves expected to interact with each other during this period. How exactly the waves interact will help determine the outcome of the storm system. At this time there is enough agreement, and the fact that we're only a little over 24hrs away from the event, to issue our initial snowfall forecast. For now we have decided to stay away from some of the lofty snowfall totals a lot of model guidance is showing, due to overall uncertainty and trends this winter of storms under-performing or trending downward at the last minute. So while some other media outlets are depicting some very high snowfall amounts, we are not going to buy into the hype for now.

Monday morning-Monday night...
A large area of scattered rain will spread across the state, Monday morning through Monday night. This activity will be widespread, but it will also be scattered. An isolated t'storm will even be possible across Southern Illinois. Very late Monday night into very early Tuesday morning any rain showers across Northern Illinois will begin to mix with and/or change over to snow.

Tuesday morning-Wednesday afternoon...
Snow will further develop across the region, spreading across Northern Illinois from Tuesday morning right on into Wednesday afternoon. Periods of moderate to even heavy snow will be possible during this time, with high snowfall rates around 1"/hr possible at times. A period of snow will be likely across portions Central Illinois as well, Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.

Final snowfall totals will likely range from 3-6" in an axis across Northern Illinois, with amounts tapering on either side of this axis.

Below is the snowfall forecast for this event.

​JP

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