Sun-Fri, April 28-May 3rd Heavy Rain/Flood Event Update #7

(5:00PM - 5/1/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week continue to bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

The first round of heavy rain and t'storms in this sequence pushed across much of Northern and Central Illinois from Sunday night into Monday morning. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" occurred across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois with this first main round. Some minor flooding occurred in hardest hit areas of Northern Illinois with this round.

The second round of heavy rain and t'storms in this sequence pushed across much of Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-4" occurred across much of Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois with this round. Widespread flooding, some major, has been seen across the aforementioned areas with this round.

The third period of more organized heavy rain and t'storms in this sequence is likely later tonight into Thursday afternoon. This activity will likely affect much of the state, though to varying degree. Upwards of 0.50-2.50" of rain is likely with this third round of activity for many areas, with isolated higher amounts possible.

It is now looking likely that a fourth round of more organized rain and t'storms is likely for Friday afternoon into Friday night, focusing more on Central and Southern Illinois. Upwards of 0.50-2" of rain is possible for areas affected with this round.

​Final rainfall totals during this whole multi-day period will likely range upwards of 2-7" in the main axis across much of Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois, with locally higher amounts possible. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the heavy rainfall totals that have already occurred and that are still expected, widespread moderate to major flood potential is likely. Widespread river/creek/stream flooding is likely, widespread field and yard flooding is likely and some street flooding is likely.

Below is our updated TAM flood forecast for this event.

JP

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