Sun-Mon, Jan. 27-28th *Potential* Winter Storm Update #4

(12:15AM - 1/26/19) Friday night update on the potential winter storm to affect portions of the state Sunday afternoon into Monday night...

Model guidance over the past few days has pretty much been all over the place, wavering on both storm track and snowfall amounts. However, through the day today and especially tonight, model guidance has finally come into decent agreement regarding the storm system track and snowfall amounts.

At this time, the favored storm track is somewhere along the Illinois/Wisconsin border or into Southern Wisconsin. This would set up the heaviest snowfall amounts across Central Wisconsin. What this means for Illinois: A period of snow will be likely from later Sunday afternoon into very early Monday morning across Northern Illinois. Following this will be a warm up of temperatures into the 30's, with the potential of a mix of precipitation across Northern Illinois on Monday, followed by some snow showers on the backside of the system Monday evening and night. Snowfall accumulations will range from 1-3" closer to I-80 on north to around I-88, then 3-6" amounts up to the Illinois/Wisconsin border.

Further south across Central and Southern Illinois rain turning to snow would be possible along the cold front, with little to no snow accumulation.

It should be noted that we are still about a little under two days away from this storm system affecting the state, and that the disturbance that will lead to the development of this storm system is still currently over the Pacific Ocean, south of Alaska. This disturbance will come onshore across Western Canada tomorrow, which will allow it to be sampled by observations, with that information being put into model guidance for tomorrow evening...Thus, the track and snowfall amounts for this system can and likely will change.

With that said, below is our TAM snowfall forecast based on current thinking and model guidance.

​JP

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